Scholarly Publications - Economics

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/11693/115479

Browse

Now showing 1 - 20 of 786

Open Access
Nonparametric seasonal cointegration tests
(Taylor and Francis Ltd., 2025-12-16) Eroğlu, B. A.; Yiğit, Taner
This paper proposes a new family of nonparametric tests to detect the number of cointegrating relations in seasonally integrated time series systems. This testing framework utilizes and extends the results of Variance-Ratio cointegration tests proposed by Nielsen (2010) and seasonal unit root tests proposed by Eroglu et al. (2018). Based on the ratio of the variance-covariance matrices of the seasonally transformed series and their fractional transforms, the proposed method requires neither a parametric regression model estimation nor a semiparametric serial correlation adjustment. Freed from the specification of the nuisance parameters, we observe significant size and power improvements over existing tests. Moreover, our cointegration tests are flexible enough to capture situations where the cointegration rank is different for different seasonal frequencies.
Open Access
Understanding fiscal decentralization: Theory, empirics and prospects
(2025-07-15) Neyaptı, Bilin
This book provides a comprehensive overview of fiscal decentralization (FD), outlining how it interacts with domestic structures and institutions. It reviews both theoretical and empirical literature relating to macroprudential institutions and macroeconomic outcomes, arguing that the complex relationship between FD and economic development undermines a one-size-fits-all approach for FD design.
Open Access
Short-term wind power electricity generation forecasting: A four-method combined model
(Taylor and Francis Ltd., 2025-11-15) Haliloglu, Ebru Yuksel; Kazak, Serkan; Erdogan, Murside Rabia; Berument, Hakan
We integrate the long short-term memory (LSTM) network into an ensemble model composed of the least squares support vector machine, echo state network, and extreme-learning machine for wind power generation forecasting. This study presents the first unified forecasting framework that combines these four machine learning techniques to evaluate their collective efficacy in improving prediction accuracy for wind power. Empirical analyses demonstrate that incorporating LSTM into the ensemble does not yield performance improvements over the three-method model. These findings indicate that the added complexity from LSTM does not enhance forecasting accuracy. Additionally, the choice of loss function is observed to have a negligible impact on the models’ predictive performance.
Embargo
Reforming external debt governance in Turkey to reach external debt sustainability
(Elsevier BV, 2025-08-18) Togan, Aslı; Togan, Sübidey
The paper argues that the attainment and maintenance of external debt sustainability is challenging, and that it is not a choice. A country whose government fails to respect external debt sustainability would eventually default on its external debt. But in the case of default the penalty is the inability to borrow in international markets, and hence the cost of defaulting could be extremely high. The paper emphasizes the importance of having a functioning external debt governance system that will reduce the probability of explosive debt trajectories over time requiring solutions to the following three issues. First, in policy circles minds should be clear about the importance of achieving sustainability of external debt. Second, policy makers have to agree on the way to attain external debt sustainability. Based on empirical analysis, the paper recommends implementing legal reforms, reducing inflation, and devaluing when necessary the real exchange rate. Finally, the country needs to find a way to translate the concept of external debt sustainability into policy technicality. In particular, such a translation requires the development of an institution that when established will enable the country to avoid facing external debt problems over time. The paper proposes the creation of an independent public advisory body, the External Debt Council, equipped with adequate resources to ensure sustainable debt management, and building and sustaining social consensus in the society on the achievement of external debt sustainability that will bind not only the officials in the present government but also the officials in future governments.
Open Access
Using ultimatum power as a leverage in resolving a bargaining conflict
(Springer, 2025-09-05) Karagözoğlu, Emin; Keskin, Kerim
We introduce an arbitrator into a well-known bilateral bargaining game (see Nash Econometrica 21:128–140, 1953). This arbitrator (i) (optimally) splits a unit-size pie into two pieces, $k$ and $1 − k$, (ii) lets players divide k in a simultaneous-move bargaining game, and then (iii) assigns an ultimatum power to the less greedy player in that game in the division of the remaining portion. Our modeling choices are motivated by gradualism (step-by-step approach), reasonableness (no severe punishment), and promotion of agreeableness (assigning favorable roles to more agreeable parties). We assume that the arbitrator aims to induce a particular division of the pie. We characterize his optimal split of the pie that eventually induces the desired division as the unique equilibrium outcome. Our results highlight a road map to resolve bargaining conflicts while respecting various procedural justice and efficiency concerns.
Embargo
Improving the deferred acceptance with minimal compromise
(Academic Press Inc., 2026-02) Afacan, Mustafa Oǧuz; Dur, Umut; Gitmez, Ahmet Arda; Yılmaz, Özgür
In school choice problems, the pursuit of student welfare (efficiency) is constrained by the requirement to respect schools’ priorities (fairness). Among fair matchings, even the welfare maximizing one, the Student-Optimal Stable Matching ( SOSM ), is inefficient. Moreover, any mechanism that yields welfare gains over the SOSM is manipulable by students. This paper investigates the fairness and incentive properties of efficient mechanisms. We compare matchings using the notion that one matching is less unfair than another if it generates a smaller set of students whose priorities are violated, and we define minimal unfairness accordingly. We show that the Efficiency-Adjusted Deferred Acceptance ( EADA ) mechanism is minimally unfair within the class of Pareto efficient mechanisms satisfying a simple incentive requirement, top-manipulation-proofness . Moreover, the EADA satisfies a stronger property, upper-manipulation-proofness . Upper-manipulation-proofness is a broad incentive property one can maintain while improving upon the SOSM . Together, these results highlight a sharp frontier in school choice: when the objective is efficiency and improving student welfare over the SOSM , the EADA emerges as a compelling mechanism in both fairness and incentive terms. © 2025 Elsevier Inc.
Embargo
Costly argumentation in bargaining
(Elsevier BV, 2026-01-01) Karagözoğlu, Emin; Keskin, K.; Çağlayan, D.
We study costly argumentation in two canonical bargaining games, where the proposer needs to justify her offer by providing arguments, because the responder derives disutility from accepting an offer that lacks sufficient justification. Argument provision is costly. Since justifying a less generous offer always requires more arguments, there is a strategic trade-off for the proposer: either invest in argument provision to persuade the responder to accept a lower offer, or refrain from providing arguments in which case the responder expects a more generous offer. Assuming an increasing and convex cost of argumentation, we show that an equilibrium with positive levels of argumentation exists in both models if the cost of argument provision is sufficiently low. Our comparative static analyses further reveal that an increase in one’s aversion to lack of sound arguments can make her worse off in equilibrium, both in terms of agreed pie share and collected utility.
Open Access
Nash bargaining is implementable via two-stage rights structures
(Elsevier B.V., 2025-09-18) Yıldız, Kemal
Koray and Yildiz (2018) introduces a new framework for implementation in which the main tool to design is the rights structure introduced by Sertel (2001). It was assumed that there is only one stage to obtain the equilibrium outcome of a rights structure. We formulate implementation via two-stage rights structures and show that the Nash bargaining solution is implementable via two-stage rights structures.
Open Access
How and when to announce contest outcomes under peak-trough preferences?
(Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2025-11-17) Karagözoǧlu, Emin; Keskin, Kerim; Saǧlam, Çaǧrı
We study a Tullock contest game where players’ effort strategies generate different random evolving lotteries depending on how and when the contest outcome is announced. We characterize its symmetric Nash equilibrium under the assumption that players have peak-trough preferences (see Gul et al. 2021). Analyzing an optimal design problem in which the contest designer can choose how (at once or gradual) and when (early or late) to announce the outcome, we show that (i) the total equilibrium effort exerted is influenced by the designer’s information disclosure strategy and (ii) any specification under consideration can be optimal for some values of preference parameters. Interestingly, a player may end up exerting a lower equilibrium effort in his most preferred specification (i.e., where he collects the highest utility from any given strategy profile compared to the other specifications). Our analysis highlights that complex strategic interactions, even in simple static games, can yield outcomes that are seemingly at odds with the insights gained from individual decision-making contexts.
Open Access
Female leadership and workplace climate
(Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), 2025-09-12) Crossley, Şule Alan; Çörekçioğlu, Gözde; Kaba, Mustafa; Sutter, Matthias
Using data from over 2,000 professionals in 24 large corporations in Tu¨rkiye, we explore the relationship between female leadership and the relational culture in the work- place. First, we document that although male and female leaders possess equal cognitive capacity, they diverge in socioemotional characteristics. Next, we show that the relational dynamics in the workplace are different under male and female leadership. Male employ- ees form homophilic professional ties under male leadership, whereas we observe less gender-segregated networks under female leadership, where both males and females establish more links with their female colleagues. Female employees receive more support from their leaders and are less likely to quit under female leadership. However, female employees working under female leaders report worse workplace satisfaction and meritoc- racy. Delving into the mechanisms reveals that female employees depict a gloomier work- place climate in the absence of social support from their female leader. Overall, our findings highlight the influential role of social support from leaders and suggest that increasing supportive female presence in leadership positions may be an effective way to foster a more inclusive relational culture in the workplace.
Open Access
Emerging market riskiness and uncertainty spillovers: evidence from the Covid-19 pandemic
(Elsevier BV, 2025-12) Kısacıkoğlu, Burçin
This paper investigates the effects of uncertainty spillovers on emerging markets. We focus on COVID-19-related news as news about global uncertainty and estimate the dynamic response of high-frequency risk measures in emerging markets. Using heteroskedasticity-based estimation and aggregate emerging market indices, we show that heightened uncertainty increases government bond and CDS spreads and decreases stock prices. Using seven emerging markets, we show that country-level risk measures respond to uncertainty consistently with aggregate measures. We argue that the results are consistent with standard consumption-based asset pricing theory.
Open Access
Mother's education and early childhood educational care
(Cambridge University Press, 2025-02-18) Akar, Betul; Akyol, Pelin; Ökten, Çağla
We analyze the impact of extending mandatory education from five to eight years on mothers’ involvement in early childhood educational activities, using data from the Turkish Time Use Survey. The compulsory education reform substantially increased the likelihood of mothers completing at least middle school (eight years of schooling). However, it had no significant effect on mothers’ time spent on early childhood educational activities, such as reading, playing, and talking to children. Instead, the reform increased mothers’ total time with children, particularly through housework and social activities involving children. These findings suggest that studies linking maternal education to greater time investment in childcare may suffer from omitted variable bias, as unobserved factors like maternal intelligence and values influence both educational attainment and childcare behaviors. Our findings are critical given that nearly half of pre-primary-age children globally are not enrolled in formal education and primarily remain in home settings.
Open Access
The impacts of Syrian refugees on natives’ health outcomes
(SAGE Publications Ltd, 2025-06-04) Akyol, Pelin; Yılmaz, Zeynep
This paper examines the causal effects of the massive Syrian refugee inflow on natives’ health outcomes using data from the Turkish Income and Living Conditions Survey. We address endogeneity issues raised by refugees’ location preferences by implementing a two-stage least squares estimation method using a distance-based instrument. We find that the refugee inflow improved the health of high-skilled and employed males, whereas the effects on low-skilled native males are insignificant. We find no evidence of a significant health effect for females. We also investigate the potential channels through which refugees can affect natives’ health outcomes, and show evidence that the improvements in high-skilled males’ working conditions and reduced probability of finding a job for low-skilled males drive our results.
Open Access
Empowering adolescents to transform schools: lessons from a behavioral targeting
(American Economic Association, 2025-02) Crossley, Şule Alan; Kubilay, Elif
We test the effectiveness of a behavioral program grounded in the idea that status granting and self-persuasion might yield a robust behavioral change in disadvantaged adolescents. We enlist socially connected senior middle school students with high emotional intelligence as "student-teachers" and entrust them with delivering a curriculum to their junior peers. The program empowers student-teachers, leading them to improve their social environment. It reduces disciplinary incidents and antisocial behavior among student-teachers and their friendship networks. The intervention significantly enhances the likelihood of admission to selective high schools for student-teachers, offering a cost-effective way to help disadvantaged adolescents escape neighborhood disadvantages.
Embargo
Group incentive-compatible allocation of discrete resources when ownership is partitioned
(Elsevier, 2025-11-06) Ishida, Wataru; Park, Changwoo
We introduce the problem of allocating objects when society is partitioned into groups of agents, each collectively owning a number of objects equal to its size. We propose a new axiom, called “within-group endowments lower bounds”, which requires that each agent find his assignment at least as desirable as his least preferred object among those owned by the group to which he belongs. We identify and characterize a family of rules satisfying this axiom in addition to efficiency, group strategy-proofness, and group-wise neutrality. We also consider two core notions, the “standard core” and the “exclusion core” (Balbuzanov and Kotowski, 2019). Our finding is that they are independent notions, unlike in traditional ownership structures (e.g., collective, private, and mixed ownership), and that our proposed rules always recommend allocations in their intersection.
Embargo
Ramsey's conjecture in dynamic contests
(Wiley-Blackwell Publishing, Inc., 2025-12-04) Keskin, Kerim; Pehlivan, Betül Sıla; Sağlam, Hüseyin Çağrı
We investigate the extent to which Ramsey's conjecture holds in an infinite‐horizon model with two agents in strategic interaction. Our model can also be interpreted as a dynamic contest game with resource constraints and an endogenous winning prize. We show that the most patient agent holds all productive resources in the long run (consistent with Ramsey's conjecture) if he is sufficiently productive. However, under different parameter values, a steady state may arise in which both agents have positive amounts of resources or, surprisingly, in which the least patient agent holds all resources. Our results also shed light on the comparative effects of ability versus patience on the long‐run equilibrium behavior in dynamic contests.
Open Access
A game-theoretic investigation of the Thucydides trap
(Birkhaeuser Science, 2025-05-23) Karagözoğlu, Emin; Keskin, Kerim; Sağlam, Çağrı
We model a conflict between an existing power and an emerging power as a strategic dynamic game with a Markov chain that regulates the emerging power’s strength evolution. Whichever country is relatively stronger in a given period has an option to declare war on the other side: once the emerging power reaches a certain strength level, it can choose to attack the existing power, but until then, initiating an attack is an option only for the existing power. The main question we address here is under which conditions the equilibrium behavior coincides with the Thucydides trap—a phenomenon in which the existing power chooses to declare war so as to prevent a future war that will start on the emerging power’s terms (i.e., under less favorable conditions for the existing power). We characterize the unique stationary subgame perfect Nash equilibrium involving the case of the Thucydides trap. The equilibrium conditions highlight the importance of two sets of parameters: the possible strength levels for the emerging power and the Markov probabilities that govern the transition between those strength levels. Our comparative static analyses provide economically intuitive results.
Embargo
Estimating euro area output gap dynamics: Evidence from the updated area-wide model database
(Elsevier Ltd, 2025-10-30) İpek, Mahmut Sefa; Kısacıkoğlu, Burçin
We estimate the output gap for the euro area and 20 member countries using a variety of statistical models, based on 55 years of data. We also update the Area-Wide Model Database (AWMD) through 2025Q2, ensuring it remains publicly accessible. Our key findings are: (1) while statistical models broadly agree on the timing of the peaks and troughs, uncertainty persists about the business cycle’s exact state due to differing estimates of the potential output, (2) statistical and institutional estimates generally align but diverge on the size of the output gap, (3) the output gaps of the five largest euro area countries are strongly correlated with each other and the overall euro area. Our work provides an important tool for understanding the business cycle dynamics of Europe’s economy and offers a reliable, official output gap measure for policymakers and economists.
Open Access
Day-of-the-week effect on stock market returns, volatility, and skewness
(Routledge, 2025-06-24) Sevgi, N. Hande; Karan, Mehmet Baha; Berument, Mahmut Hakan
The day-of-the-week effect—characterised by lower expected returns (mean) on Mondays and higher Monday volatility (conditional variance) compared to on Fridays – is a well-documented regularity in stock markets. In this paper, we examine the effect of the day-of-the-week on the distribution of returns for its symmetry (skewness). To achieve this, we analyse the five leading stock indicators in the US markets from 1928 to 2023. We document lower (and negative) conditional skewness on Mondays and the results are robust. This implies that frequent small gains and occasional significant losses are more probable on Mondays than on Fridays.
Open Access
Anonymous implementation
(Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2025-10-04) Barlo, Mehmet; Dalkıran, Nuh Aygün; Dönmez, Muhammed
This paper investigates full implementation under complete information, incorporating fairness considerations when designing mechanisms. In particular, we propose two notions of full implementation: anonymous implementation and no-envy implementation. Anonymous implementation requires that for any state, all socially optimal alternatives are attainable via a Nash equilibrium (NE) offering identical opportunity sets to all individuals, and that any such NE is itself socially optimal. No-envy implementation requires socially optimal alternatives to be achievable via NE, adding the condition that each individual weakly prefers the socially desirable alternative to any alternative in others’ opportunity sets. We identify necessary and (almost) sufficient conditions for both anonymous and no-envy implementation. We also demonstrate the existence of social choice rules that are anonymously and no-envy implementable but not implementable in NE, revealing that fairness considerations may enlarge the set of implementable social choice rules. Finally, we establish the equivalence of anonymous and no-envy implementation in rational environments with at least three individuals and no-veto social goals, but show that this equivalence fails in behavioral environments. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2025.