Scholarly Publications - Economics

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/11693/115479

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Open Access
1680-1747 Ottoman budgets and deficits sustainability in a period of fiscal transition: wars and administrative changes
(American Economic Association, 2006) Berument, Hakan; Ocaklı, N.
This paper studies the sustainability of the Ottoman budget for the period from 1680 to 1747, during different sultanates and war eras. Moreover, we investigate whether the relationship between government revenues and expenditures changes in the period of culus. The empirical evidence gathered in this paper suggests that during the sample period, except for the sultanate era of Mahmut I, the Ottoman budget was not sustainable. The other interesting result of the study is that culus payments had a significant tax increasing effect. Moreover, the distribution of culus deteriorated the sustainability of budget.
Open Access
Accounting for externalities in the measurement of productivity growth: the Malmquist cost productivity measure
(Elsevier BV, 2005) Ball, E.; Färe, R.; Grosskopf, S.; Zaim, O.
This paper starts with the basic premise: that conventional measures of productivity growth-often used as a measure of corporate performance-which ignore external or social output, are biased. We then construct an alternative productivity growth measure using activity analysis which integrates the externality/social output into a generalized productivity measure reflecting social responsibility. This method is very general and could be applied to gauge corporate social responsibility. We provide an application to US agriculture to demonstrate the approach: We show that conventional measures of productivity are biased upward when production of negative externalities (or bad) outputs is increasing. Conversely, this same measure of productivity is biased downward when externalities in production are decreasing. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Open Access
Agriculture and trade liberalization in the MENA region: dynamic impacts of future scenarios
(Taylor & Francis Group, 2003) Bayar, A. H.; Ahmed, G. B.; Boer, P. D; Diao, X.; Yeldan, A. E.
What would be the potential economic impact of a new World Trade Organization (WTO) trade round on the agricultural trade of the countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region? The answer to this question has to take into account not only the various liberalization scenarios one can meaningfully envisage as a result of the current WTO negotiations, but also the ongoing reform efforts of the European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), the enlargement of the European Union (EU) and the future of the Euro-Mediterranean Agreements (EMAs). A great number of divergent combinations of policies/scenarios can be envisaged and the implications of these diverse combinations are very different for the agricultural trade of the MENA countries.
Open Access
Agro-climatic conditions and regional technical inefficiencies in agriculture
(Wiley-Blackwell Publishing, Inc., 2002) Demir, N.; Mahmud, S. F.
A survey of applications of the Technical Inefficiency Effects (TIE) model suggests that agro-climatic and other environment variables are customarily omitted in the model specifications. The justification for such an omission is the assumption that these variables are beyond the control of the farmers and therefore should be treated as random variables. In this paper, we argue that in applications dealing with regional agricultural data, agro-climatic variables should not be treated as pure random terms. Historical differences in agro-climatic conditions are known with a reasonable degree of certainty across a larger region. Therefore, omission of such variables from the analysis may lead to inaccurate interregional technical inefficiency comparisons. In order to demonstrate the importance of agro-climatic variables in such analyses, we estimate the TIE model for Turkey. A translog stochastic frontier production function with agro-climatic variables such as rainfall and land quality is estimated, and it is shown not only that the agro-climatic variables are statistically significant but also that their omission substantially affects mean output elasticities and relative technical efficiencies.
Open Access
Allocation rules on networks
(Springer New York LLC, 2014) İlkılıç, R.; Kayı Ç.ğ.
When allocating a resource, geographical and infrastructural constraints have to be taken into account. We study the problem of distributing a resource through a network from sources endowed with the resource to citizens with claims. A link between a source and a citizen depicts the possibility of a transfer from the source to the citizen. Given the endowments at each source, the claims of citizens, and the network, the question is how to allocate the available resources among the citizens. We consider a simple allocation problem that is free of network constraints, where the total amount can be freely distributed. The simple allocation problem is a claims problem where the total amount of claims is greater than what is available. We focus on resource monotonic and anonymous bilateral principles satisfying a regularity condition and extend these principles to allocation rules on networks. We require the extension to preserve the essence of the bilateral principle for each pair of citizens in the network. We call this condition pairwise robustness with respect to the bilateral principle. We provide an algorithm and show that each bilateral principle has a unique extension which is pairwise robust (Theorem 1). Next, we consider a Rawlsian criteria of distributive justice and show that there is a unique “Rawls fair” rule that equals the extension given by the algorithm (Theorem 2). Pairwise robustness and Rawlsian fairness are two sides of the same coin, the former being a pairwise and the latter a global requirement on the allocation given by a rule. We also show as a corollary that any parametric principle can be extended to an allocation rule (Corollary 1). Finally, we give applications of the algorithm for the egalitarian, the proportional, and the contested garment bilateral principles (Example 1). © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
Open Access
An alternative method to measure the likelihood of a financial crisis in an emerging market
(Elsevier BV, 2007) Özlale, Ü.; Özcan, K. M.
This paper utilizes an early warning system in order to measure the likelihood of a financial crisis in an emerging market economy. We introduce a methodology, where we can both obtain a likelihood series and analyze the time-varying effects of several macroeconomic variables on this likelihood. Since the issue is analyzed in a non-linear state space framework, the extended Kalman filter emerges as the optimal estimation algorithm. Taking the Turkish economy as our laboratory, the results indicate that both the derived likelihood measure and the estimated time-varying parameters are meaningful and can successfully explain the path that the Turkish economy had followed between 2000 and 2006. The estimated parameters also suggest that overvalued domestic currency, current account deficit and the increase in the default risk increase the likelihood of having an economic crisis in the economy. Overall, the findings in this paper suggest that the estimation methodology introduced in this paper can also be applied to other emerging market economies as well. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Open Access
Analysing macro-poverty linkages of external liberalisation: gaps, achievements and alternatives
(Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd., 2005) Gunter, B. G.; Taylor, L.; Yeldan, E.
CGE modelling has dominated analysis of the impact of external liberalisation on poverty. This article provides a structuralist critique of standard neo-classical CGE models. It highlights five sets of gaps and partial achievements in the modelling of issues affecting the poverty impact of macroeconomic policies: duality and structural rigidities; efficiency gains and quota rents; the investment and savings specification; the nature of public expenditures; and the modelling of financial fragility, risk premia and issues of credibility. It outlines a model that makes it possible to analyse more plausible stories about the impact of both current and capital account liberalisation and questions the realism of existing approaches to ex-ante poverty impact assessment. © Overseas Development Institute, 2005.
Open Access
An analysis of strategic behavior in eBAY auctions
(World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., 2009) Gonzalez, R.; Hasker, K.; Sickles, R. C.
A relatively new type of panel data analysis is becoming more and more topical in the applied econometrics literature as auction mechanisms are being explored in more depth. The typical data utilized in such studies involves repeated measures of auction outcomes, where the variable of interest involves order statistics from the sample of bids from many bids on completed auctions for a particular commodity. This article presents structural estimates of bidding behavior in eBay computer monitor auctions. We exploit characteristics of such repeated measures to analyze the efficiency of private value auctions for a relatively homogeneous good, computer monitors sold on eBay. We discuss how outcomes of the auction mechanism can be analyzed and their equilibrium outcomes assessed and evaluate the consumer surplus that is generated from such auctions. Particular attention is given to the collection of the eBay data from data recovery protocols that monitor in real time and in relative detail, characteristics of a particular auction with heterogeneity controls for different types of monitors and for different reputation effects of the auctioneer. Among other findings, our results point to a rejection of the use of Jump Bidding (Avery, 1998) or "Snipe or War" bidding (Roth and Ockenfels, 2002). We also find that longer auctions only have a small effect on price and experienced auctioneers respond to this incentive. © 2009 World Scientific Publishing Company.
Open Access
Analysis of the impact of EU enlargement on the agricultur al markets and incomes of Turkey
(World Bank, 2005) Togan, Sübidey; Bayener, A.; Nash, J.; Hoekman, B. M.; Togan, Sübidey
Open Access
Analyzing strategic behavior in a dynamic model of bargaining and war
(Springer, 2023-09-19) Doğan, Serhat; Keskin, K.; Sağlam, Çağrı
We analyze a dynamic model of bargaining and war with two states located on a linear territory. One state demands a portion of the other state’s territory each period such that if the latter state makes a concession, the former state takes control of the demanded portion. If otherwise, the two states engage in warfare to decide which state controls the disputed portion of territory. À la Fearon, we consider a model in which the states bargain over objects that influence future bargaining power. That is, it is valuable to have more territory, not only because it brings higher utility, but also because it increases future bargaining power, as it can be used to generate military resources in wars to come. We implicitly characterize the unique Markov perfect equilibrium of the model, and utilizing a set of parameter values, we illustrate that there are six different types of equilibrium outcomes. We then provide a variety of historical examples and argue that our model is able to capture their patterns and characteristics.
Open Access
Analyzing the persistence of currency substitution using a ratchet variable: the Turkish case
(Routledge, 2003) Us, V.
Although previous studies on currency substitution in Turkey confirm the existence of currency substitution, these works ignore whether this process reached an irreversible stage or not. This paper analyzes the persistence of currency substitution in Turkey through inclusion of a ratchet variable, the past peak value of the currency substitution. Results using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach suggest that currency substitution during 1990-93 is not persistent enough to be irreversible. During 1995-99, even though currency substitution in the narrow sense is persistent, currency substitution in the broader sense is not irreversible. Therefore, there is still room for effective monetary policy.
Open Access
Analyzing time-varying effects of potential output growth shocks
(Elsevier BV, 2008) Özlale, Ü.; Özbek, L.
Employing a state space model, we find for the United States economy that potential output growth rate can deviate from its steady state level for substantially long periods. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Open Access
Announcements and credibility under inflation targeting
(Elsevier BV, 2008) Demir, B.; Yigit, T. M.
We inspect how inflation target announcements are instrumental in building central bank credibility and shaping inflation expectations. Investigating the role of announcements by using a time varying credibility measure, we find that both the accuracy and the frequency of inflation announcements have a positive impact on how much attention the public pays to target announcements. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Open Access
Application of periodogram-based cointegration test for the analysis of the services and goods sector inflations
(Econometric Research Association, 2010) Metin Ozcan, K.; Akdi, Y.; Kalafatcilar, K.
The differing dynamics of the inflations of the services and goods sectors has been of major concern in Turkey. The persistence of the services sector inflation during disinflation periods hampered the efforts of the Central Bank of Turkey of hitting inflation targets in a country with long-lasting high inflation experience. In search of a possible long-run relationship between the services and goods sectors’ inflations, this paper employs a method based on periodograms of the series in addition to time series tools. A periodogram-based test has pros over conventional tests; this test is model-free, seasonally robust and mean invariant. Empirical findings obtained from the methods employed in this study, Engle-Granger’s and Johansen’s conventional long-run time series tools as well as periodogram based test, suggest that services and goods sector inflations in Turkey are not cointegrated.
Open Access
An applied endogenous growth model with human and knowledge capital accumulation for the Turkish economy
(Routledge, 2015-10-02) Voyvoda, E.; Yeldan, E.
We analytically investigate and assess the interactions between knowledge-driven growth, acquisition of human capital, and the role of strategic public policy for the Turkish economy within the context of a general equilibrium model. The model aims to investigate the public policies toward fostering the development of human capital (such as investments in education and learning) and those at enhancing total factor productivity through investments in physical capital and innovation (such as subsidies to R&D), and to study the impact of various public policies on patterns of growth, along with their likely consequences from the points of view of capital accumulation, income distribution, social welfare and economic efficiency for the Turkish economy. With the aid of the model, we seek for analytical answers to the following question: for a government constrained with its budgetary requirements, which type of public subsidiziation policies is more conducive for enhancing growth and social welfare: promotion of human capital formation through subsidies to education expenditures, or promotion of new R&D formation through subsidies to R&D investment expenditures? According to the model findings, a single-handed strategy of only subsidizing education expenditures to promote human capital formation falls short of achieving desirable growth performance in the medium to long run. Under the policy of human capital formation promotion, expected growth and welfare results are weak in the medium-to-long run unless increased human capital can upgrade the number of research personnel employed in the R&D development sector. Under these observations, it can be argued that the public policy should be directed to R&D promotion in the medium-to-long run to complement an education promotion program to sustain human capital formation.
Open Access
Appropriate policy tools to manage capital flow externalities
(Palgrave Macmillan, London, 2015) Gürkaynak, Refet S.; Stiglitz; Gürkaynak, Refet S.
Central banks are at the forefront of cyclical policymaking. They therefore become natural candidates to take over all cyclical policy objectives. This is often the case in policies for controlling capital inflows. Giving the duty of controlling capital flows to central banks, explicitly or implicitly, without giving them the appropriate policy tools, leads to inefficient outcomes. It is clear that when a central bank has to use its interest rate tool to satisfy multiple objectives, it will have to make sacrifices. More subtly, but perhaps more importantly, when central banks incur the cost of capital inflows, mostly in terms of taking the public blame, other policymakers often engage in policies that have the side effect of increasing these flows. It then becomes doubly important to give the capital flow management mandate to the policymaker who fosters the inflows, so their possible negative effects will be internalized.
Open Access
The Asian financial crisis and international reserve accumulation: a robust control approach
(Elsevier, 2018) Lee, Sang Seok; Luk, P.
Standard macroeconomic models have difficulties accounting for the surge in international reserves of Asian countries in the aftermath of the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997. We propose precautionary demand for saving generated by model uncertainty as an important driver of this phenomenon. Using Korean data, we estimate a simple permanent income model augmented with model uncertainty, find a structural break at the point of the Asian Financial Crisis, and identify a rise in concern for model misspecification which is distinct from an increase in income volatility. The post-crisis concern for model misspecification implies a reasonable detection error probability. We also show that learning serves as an additional powerful amplification mechanism in our framework.
Open Access
Assessing selectivity and market timing performance of mutual funds for an emerging market: the case of Turkey
(Routledge, 2008) İmişiker, S.; Özlale, Ü.
This paper derives and analyzes the selectivity and market timing performance of the mutual funds for the Turkish economy for the financial crisis period by employing high-frequency data. The determinants of these derived abilities are investigated within a regression analysis. The results suggest weak evidence about selection ability and some evidence about superior market timing quality. They also indicate that management fees are negatively correlated with the ability measure, which is quite surprising. Experience emerges as an important factor, especially for market timing ability. Copyright © 2008 M.E. Sharpe, Inc. All rights reserved.
Open Access
Assessing the effects of a policy rate shock on market interest rates: interest rate pass-through with a FAVAR model–the case of Turkey for the inflation-targeting period
(2018-07-29) Ceylan, N. B.; Berument, Hakan; Varlik, S.
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effectiveness of the central bank’s policy rate on market interest rates in Turkey for the inflation-targeting period. Empirical evidence suggests that (i) all interest rates respond to a positive policy rate shock positively for all periods and have a hump shape for government debt security yields as well as for domestic-currency‒ and foreign-currency‒denominated time deposit interest rates; (ii) as maturities increase, the responses of all interest rates to the policy shock increase; (iii) the responses to the policy shock of credit interest rates with higher demand elasticity and longer maturity, such as vehicle and housing rates, is lower than those of others that we consider and (iv) the interest-rate responses of foreign-currency‒denominated commercial credits are lower than those of domestic-currency‒denominated commercial credits.
Open Access
An Assessment of the Turkish Economy in the AKP Era
(Routledge, 2016) Yeldan, E. A.; Ünüvar, B.
This paper studies the performance of the Turkish economy under the reign of the Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, AKP). Most of this period coincides with abundant global capital especially in the aftermath of the Great Recession. We argue that AKP’s economy policies were shaped with the goal of attracting foreign capital to the country, creating a debt ridden speculative growth model and turning a blind eye to the mandate of solving the country’s fundamental problems. Within this model, monetary policy has been the leading actor. Although the Central Bank has been operating with a price stability mandate during this period, inflation targeting performance has been poor, creating doubts about the leading motive behind the reaction function. Fiscal policy became a dependent variable, shadowed by the capital chasing monetary policy. As global liquidity started to become more risk averse in the post-tapering era and as accumulated domestic problems of the country became thicker, Turkey’s growth model proved to be unsustainable, intensifying external fragility for the period ahead.