Output gap estimatıon for the case of Turkey

Date

2015

Editor(s)

Advisor

Gürkaynak, Refet S.

Supervisor

Co-Advisor

Co-Supervisor

Instructor

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Abstract

This study investigates the output gap estimation using dynamic, stochastic, and general equilibrium models. In macroeconomics, output gap is defined as the difference between the actual output and the potential output. Actual output refers to the GDP, which measures the monetary value of the total production in the domestic economy in a certain time period. Potential output is the maximum amount of production that can be reached with the available resources and technology. Potential output is measured by HP-Filtering and DSGE methods. In this thesis, these methods are used to estimate the maximum output gap for the Turkish Economy. It is shown that both these methods predict the maximum output gap accurately. In particular, Csminwel and Monte-Carlo simulation methods are used to obtain the maximum output gap between the first quarter of 2005 and the second quarter of 2014.

Source Title

Publisher

Course

Other identifiers

Book Title

Degree Discipline

Economics

Degree Level

Master's

Degree Name

MA (Master of Arts)

Citation

Published Version (Please cite this version)

Language

English

Type