On the macroeconomic impact of the August 1999 earthquake in Turkey: a first assessment

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dc.citation.epage488en_US
dc.citation.issueNumber7en_US
dc.citation.spage483en_US
dc.citation.volumeNumber8en_US
dc.contributor.authorSelcuk, F.en_US
dc.contributor.authorYeldan, E.en_US
dc.date.accessioned2016-02-08T10:36:01Z
dc.date.available2016-02-08T10:36:01Z
dc.date.issued2001en_US
dc.departmentDepartment of Economicsen_US
dc.departmentDepartment of International Relationsen_US
dc.description.abstractThe devastating earthquake that struck the most densely populated and industrialized area of Turkey on 17 August, 1999 was one of the most damaging natural disasters during this century. This paper is a first attempt to estimate the transition path of the Turkish economy to its new equilibrium after the earthquake. An applied general equilibrium model is utilized to provide an initial assessment and to obtain the second best policy options to mitigate the negative effects of the earthquake. The analytical foundations of the model rest upon intertemporal dynamics as laid out in neoclassical growth theory. Simulation results suggest that the initial impact of the earthquake on GDP may range from -4.5% to +0.8% of GDP, conditional upon policies followed by the government and international donors. The policy implication of the paper is that best outcomes might be reaped via a negative indirect tax (a subsidy financed by foreign aid) to individual sectors to recover their capital losses. On the other hand, an indirect tax to finance the extra fiscal spending would result in an output loss, further deepening the impact of the earthquake on the economy.en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1080/13504850010007501en_US
dc.identifier.eissn1466-4291
dc.identifier.issn1350-4851
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11693/24908
dc.language.isoEnglishen_US
dc.publisherRoutledgeen_US
dc.relation.isversionofhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13504850010007501en_US
dc.source.titleApplied Economics Lettersen_US
dc.subjectEarthquakeen_US
dc.subjectEconomic impacten_US
dc.subjectMacroeconomicsen_US
dc.subjectNational tradeen_US
dc.subjectTurkeyen_US
dc.titleOn the macroeconomic impact of the August 1999 earthquake in Turkey: a first assessmenten_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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