Bayesian in-service failure rate models
| buir.advisor | Dayanık, Savaş | |
| dc.contributor.author | Alankaya, Tolunay | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2022-08-09T05:42:56Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2022-08-09T05:42:56Z | |
| dc.date.copyright | 2022-08 | |
| dc.date.issued | 2022-08 | |
| dc.date.submitted | 2022-08-04 | |
| dc.department | Department of Industrial Engineering | en_US |
| dc.description | Cataloged from PDF version of article. | en_US |
| dc.description | Thesis (Master's): Bilkent University, Department of Industrial Engineering, İhsan Doğramacı Bilkent University, 2022. | en_US |
| dc.description | Includes bibliographical references (leaves 130-133). | en_US |
| dc.description.abstract | Predicting the number of appliance failures during service after sales is crucial for manufacturers to detect production errors and plan spare part inventories. We provide a two-phased Bayesian model that predicts the number of refrigerators that fail after sales. Thus the study focuses on both sales forecasting and failure detection. The two-phased Bayesian model is trained by the datasets provided by a leading durable home appliances company. The accuracy results show that one-level models are inferior to multi-level models when the data are sparse. We conclude that hierarchical Bayesian models are preferable since they can naturally capture the heterogeneity across all blends of attributes. | en_US |
| dc.description.degree | M.S. | en_US |
| dc.description.statementofresponsibility | by Tolunay Alankaya | en_US |
| dc.format.extent | xvi, 133 leaves : color charts ; 30 cm. | en_US |
| dc.identifier.itemid | B161136 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/11693/110397 | |
| dc.language.iso | English | en_US |
| dc.publisher | Bilkent University | en_US |
| dc.rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess | en_US |
| dc.subject | Hierarchical Bayesian models | en_US |
| dc.subject | Hamiltonian Monte Carlo | en_US |
| dc.subject | Sales forecasting | en_US |
| dc.subject | In-service failures | en_US |
| dc.title | Bayesian in-service failure rate models | en_US |
| dc.title.alternative | Bayezyen servisi için arıza oranı modeller | en_US |
| dc.type | Thesis | en_US |