The minimal conditions for a financial crisis: a multiregional intertemporal CGE model of the Asian crisis

Abstract

The globalization of world capitalism constrains the ability of the developmental state to pursue an independent industrialization and foreign trade strategy. We use an intertemporal, multiregion CGE model, to study the fundamental reasons for a financial crisis. We find that we can create a realistic crisis in the Asia region when capital markets are open and there is an unexpected rise in the risk premium of the Asia region. When capital markets are closed and the state retains all its policy instruments, the Asia region not only avoids a crisis but increases its rate of growth. (C) 2000 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.