Browsing by Subject "Judgment"

Now showing 1 - 10 of 10

Open Access
Aviation risk perception: a comparison between experts and novices
(Wiley-Blackwell Publishing, 2004) Thomson, M. E.; Önkal D.; Avcioǧlu, A.; Goodwin, P.
This article describes an exploratory investigation of the risk perceptions of experts and novices in relation to helicopter operations, under conditions where the participants are matched on various characteristics previously found to affect perceptions, such as demographic, gender, and background factors. The study reports considerable evidence of perceptual differences between the two participant groups (i.e., expert pilots and candidate pilots). We find that the experts' perceptions of relative risks are more veridical, in terms of their higher correlation with the true relative frequencies. A significant positive correlation between the flight hours and the contextual risk-taking tendency is also shown, leading the experienced pilots' choices toward risky alternatives in scenarios - a potential result of their overconfidence based on superior task performance. Possible explanations are offered for the findings and potential avenues for future research are identified.
Open Access
Contextual effects on ethical sensitivity and penalty judgments
(Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2003) Şımga-Mugan, C.; Önkal-Atay, D.
The aim of the current study is to explore the potential existence of contextual effects on ethical sensitivity and penalty judgments. In so doing, Turkish female and male business students’ ethical judgments for accounting and general business contexts are investigated, along with their penalty judgments in these two settings. The results of this study reveal no significant gender-related differences in ethical judgments on accounting issues, but significant gender differences are observed in general business scenarios. This finding supports the proposition that observed differences of ethical judgments between the genders may be contextual. The results indicate that there is higher ethical awareness for both genders in general business contexts, with females showing stronger ethical sensitivity than males for general business vignettes. In general, males are found to prefer harsher penalties than females for accounting settings and for all penalty choices. Analyses of penalty judgments between the groups of individuals who are more ethically sensitive and who are less ethically sensitive reveals that there exist significant differences between these groups in all penalty choices, with ethically-more-sensitive group participants preferring stronger penalties.
Open Access
Effects of feedback on financial forecasting
(1996) Dirimtekin, Serra
The objective of this study is to examine the effects o f feedback on financial forecasting. In particular, the effects o f simple outcome feedback and cahbration feedback as a type of perfonuance feedback on the accuracy of probabilistic forecasts of stock pi iccs and market indices in dichotomous format are analyzed. The study is conducted on subjects comprised of undergraduate and graduate students from the Faculty of Business Administration at Bilkent University. The results indicate that feedback, especially calibration feedback, has a considerable effect on the performance o f forecasters. ImpUcations of these findings for financial forecasting are discussed and directions for future research are given.
Open Access
The effects of structural characteristics of explanations on use of a DSS
(Elsevier, 2006) Gönül, M. S.; Önkal D.; Lawrence, M.
Research in the field of expert systems has shown that providing supporting explanations may influence effective use of system developed advice. However, despite many studies showing the less than optimal use made of DSS prepared advice, almost no research has been undertaken to study if the provision of explanations enhances the users' ability to wisely accept DSS advice. This study outlines an experiment to examine the effects of structural characteristics of explanations provided within a forecasting DSS context. In particular, the effects of explanation length (short vs. long) and the conveyed confidence level (weak vs. strong confidence) are examined. Strongly confident and long explanations are found to be more effective in participants' acceptance of interval forecasts. In addition, explanations with higher information value are more effective than those with low information value and thus are persuasive tools in the presentation of advice to users.
Open Access
Feedback-labelling synergies in judgmental stock price forecasting
(Elsevier, 2004) Goodwin, P.; Önkal-Atay, D.; Thomson, M. E.; Pollock, A. C.; Macaulay, A.
Research has suggested that outcome feedback is less effective than other forms of feedback in promoting learning by users of decision support systems. However, if circumstances can be identified where the effectiveness of outcome feedback can be improved, this offers considerable advantages, given its lower computational demands, ease of understanding and immediacy. An experiment in stock price forecasting was used to compare the effectiveness of outcome and performance feedback: (i) when different forms of probability forecast were required, and (ii) with and without the presence of contextual information provided as labels. For interval forecasts, the effectiveness of outcome feedback came close to that of performance feedback, as long as labels were provided. For directional probability forecasts, outcome feedback was not effective, even if labels were supplied. Implications are discussed and future research directions are suggested.
Open Access
Hannah Arendt's conceptualizations of evil
(2016-01) Shkreli, Etrit
We owe to Hannah Arendt the notion of “radical evil” and “the banality of evil”. The word “evil” appears with a surprising frequency in Arendt’s work, even though she never wrote a theory of evil and she was not a moralist. Arendt was not a systematic thinker. In this thesis I reconstruct Hannah Arendt’s accounts of evil by presenting them in relation to other fundamental concepts for which Arendt is well-known. My argument is that in order to understand the many nuances of the concept of evil that feature in Hannah Arendt’s body of work we need to look at the relation between evil and freedom. As Arendt’s two notions of freedom (I-can of the new beginning and I-will of the freedom of will) point towards two different conceptualizations of evil (radicality of evil and the banality of evil), it is the reality of evil which serves as the linchpin that helps us see the relation that exists between these two conceptualizations.
Open Access
Influence of differentiated roles on group forecasting accuracy
(Elsevier, 2011-03) Önkal D.; Lawrence, M.; Sayım, K. Z.
While behavioral research on forecasting has mostly examined the individual forecaster, organizationally-based forecasting processes typically tend to rely on groups with members from different functional areas for arriving at ‘consensus’ forecasts. The forecasting performance could also vary depending on the particular group structuring utilized in reaching a final prediction. The current study compares the forecasting performance of modified consensus groups with that of staticized groups using formal role-playing. It is found that, when undistorted model forecasts are given, group forecasts (whether they are arrived at through averaging or by a detailed discussion of the forecasts) contribute positively to the forecasting accuracy. However, providing distorted initial forecasts affects the final accuracy with varying degrees of improvement over the initial forecasts. The results show a strong tendency to favor optimistic forecasts for both the staticized and modified consensus group forecasts. Overall, the role modifications are found to be successful in eliciting a differential adjustment behavior, effectively mimicking the disparities between different organizational roles. Current research suggests that group discussions may be an efficient method of displaying and resolving differential motivational contingencies, potentially leading to group forecasts that perform quite well.
Open Access
Judgmental forecasts with scenarios and risks
(2017-06) Öz, Esra
The purpose of this thesis is to investigate how scenarios and risks influence judgmental forecasts, forecaster’s confidence, and assessments of likelihood of occurrence. In its attempt to identify the impact of scenarios and risks as channels of forecast advice, this research reports the findings on the use of advice from six experimental groups with business practitioners as participants. Goal was to collect evidence and interpret the reasons and motivations behind judgmental forecasts from actual business life, as well as to identify the possible biases of forecasters after reviewing certain scenarios and risks. This thesis also presents analyses on the use of advice corresponding to the credibility attributes of advisors, i.e., “experienced credibility” and “presumed credibility”. Following a discussion of the results, future research directions are provided.
Open Access
Provider-user differences in perceived usefulness of forecasting formats
(Pergamon Press, 2004) Önkal D.; Bolger, F.
This paper aims to examine potential differences in perceived usefulness of various forecasting formats from the perspectives of providers and users of predictions. Experimental procedure consists of asking participants to assume the role of forecast providers and to construct forecasts using different formats, followed by requesting usefulness ratings for these formats (Phase 1). Usefulness of the formats are rated again in hindsight after receiving individualized performance feedback (Phase 2). In the ensuing role switch exercise, given new series and external predictions, participants are required to assign usefulness ratings as forecast users (Phase 3). In the last phase, participants are given performance feedback and asked to rate the usefulness in hindsight as users of predictions (Phase 4). Results reveal that regardless of the forecasting role, 95% prediction intervals are considered to be the most useful format, followed by directional predictions, 50% interval forecasts, and lastly, point forecasts. Finally, for all formats and for both roles, usefulness in hindsight is found to be lower than usefulness prior to performance feedback presentation.
Open Access
Scenarios as channels of forecast advice
(Elsevier, 2013-05) Önkal, D.; Sayım, K. Z.; Gönül, M. S.
Today's business environment provides tougher competition than ever before, stressing the important role played by information and forecasts in decision-making. The scenario method has been popular for focused organizational learning, decision making and strategic thinking in business contexts, and yet, its use in communicating forecast information and advice has received little research attention. This is surprising since scenarios may provide valuable tools for communication between forecast providers and users in organizations, offering efficient platforms for information exchange via structured storylines of plausible futures. In this paper, we aim to explore the effectiveness of using scenarios as channels of forecast advice. An experimental study is designed to investigate the effects of providing scenarios as forecast advice on individual and group-based judgmental predictions. Participants are given time series information and model forecasts, along with (i) best-case, (ii) worst-case, (iii) both, or (iv) no scenarios. Different forecasting formats are used (i.e., point forecast, best-case forecast, worst-case forecast, and surprise probability), and both individual predictions and consensus forecasts are requested. Forecasts made with and without scenarios are compared for each of these formats to explore the potential effects of providing scenarios as forecast advice. In addition, group effects are investigated via comparisons of composite versus consensus predictions. The paper concludes with a discussion of results and implications for future research on scenario use in forecasting.