Feedback-labelling synergies in judgmental stock price forecasting

Date
2004
Authors
Goodwin, P.
Önkal-Atay, D.
Thomson, M. E.
Pollock, A. C.
Macaulay, A.
Advisor
Instructor
Source Title
Decision Support Systems
Print ISSN
0167-9236
Electronic ISSN
1873-5797
Publisher
Elsevier
Volume
37
Issue
1
Pages
175 - 186
Language
English
Type
Article
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Abstract

Research has suggested that outcome feedback is less effective than other forms of feedback in promoting learning by users of decision support systems. However, if circumstances can be identified where the effectiveness of outcome feedback can be improved, this offers considerable advantages, given its lower computational demands, ease of understanding and immediacy. An experiment in stock price forecasting was used to compare the effectiveness of outcome and performance feedback: (i) when different forms of probability forecast were required, and (ii) with and without the presence of contextual information provided as labels. For interval forecasts, the effectiveness of outcome feedback came close to that of performance feedback, as long as labels were provided. For directional probability forecasts, outcome feedback was not effective, even if labels were supplied. Implications are discussed and future research directions are suggested.

Course
Other identifiers
Book Title
Keywords
Calibration, Contextual information, Judgment, Stock price, Correlation methods, Data reduction, Feedback, Forecasting, Industrial economics, Industrial research, Probability, Decision support systems
Citation
Published Version (Please cite this version)