Browsing by Subject "Industrial economics"

Now showing 1 - 8 of 8

Open Access
The effects of different inflation risk premiums on interest rate spreads
(Elsevier BV, 2004) Berument, Hakan; Kilinc, Z.; Ozlale, U.
This paper analyzes how the different types of inflation uncertainty affect a set of interest rate spreads for the UK. Three types of inflation uncertainty - structural uncertainty, impulse uncertainty, and steady-state inflation uncertainty - are defined and derived by using a time-varying parameter model with a GARCH specification. It is found that both the structural and steady-state inflation uncertainties increase interest rate spreads, while the empirical evidence for the impulse uncertainty is not conclusive. © 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Open Access
An equipment replacement problem with dynamic production planning and capacity considerations
(Taylor & Francis, 1996) Gill, A.; Adil, G. K.; Bector, C. R.
In this paper, we propose a 0-1 integer programming formulation for an equipment replacement problem in which the demand of a product varies from period to period and different types of equipment with different production capacities are available. Since all the variables involved in the model are restricted to have binary values, the model is fairly efficient and hence can be used for large-sized problems. The use of the model is demonstrated with the help of some numerical examples.
Open Access
Feedback-labelling synergies in judgmental stock price forecasting
(Elsevier, 2004) Goodwin, P.; Önkal-Atay, D.; Thomson, M. E.; Pollock, A. C.; Macaulay, A.
Research has suggested that outcome feedback is less effective than other forms of feedback in promoting learning by users of decision support systems. However, if circumstances can be identified where the effectiveness of outcome feedback can be improved, this offers considerable advantages, given its lower computational demands, ease of understanding and immediacy. An experiment in stock price forecasting was used to compare the effectiveness of outcome and performance feedback: (i) when different forms of probability forecast were required, and (ii) with and without the presence of contextual information provided as labels. For interval forecasts, the effectiveness of outcome feedback came close to that of performance feedback, as long as labels were provided. For directional probability forecasts, outcome feedback was not effective, even if labels were supplied. Implications are discussed and future research directions are suggested.
Open Access
Free float and stochastic volatility: the experience of a small open economy
(Elsevier BV, 2004) Selçuk, F.
Following a dramatic collapse of a fixed exchange rate based inflation stabilization program, Turkey moved into a free floating exchange rate system in February 2001. In this paper, an asymmetric stochastic volatility model of the foreign exchange rate in Turkey is estimated for the floating period. It is shown that there is a positive relation between the exchange return and its volatility. Particularly, an increase in the return at time t results in an increase in volatility at time t+1. However, the effect is asymmetric: a decrease in the exchange rate return at time t causes a relatively less decrease in volatility at time t+1. The results imply that a central bank with a volatility smoothing policy would be biased in viewing the shocks to the exchange rate in favor of appreciation. The bias would increase if the bank is also following an inflation targeting policy. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Open Access
Inflation and inflation uncertainty in the G-7 countries
(Elsevier BV, 2005) Berument, Hakan; Dincer, N. N.
This study examines the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in the G-7 countries for the period from 1957 to 2001. The causality between the inflation and inflation uncertainty is tested by using the Full Information Maximum Likelihood Method with extended lags. Our results suggest that inflation causes inflation uncertainty for all the G-7 countries, while inflation uncertainty causes inflation for Canada, France, Japan, the UK and the US. Furthermore, we find that in four countries (Canada, France, the UK and the US) increased uncertainty lowers inflation, and in only one country (Japan), increased uncertainty raises inflation. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Open Access
Inflationary effect of crude oil prices in Turkey
(Elsevier BV, 2002) Berument, Hakan; Taşçı, H.
It is generally acknowledged that changes in oil prices affect economic welfare in ways that are not entirely reflected in transactions in the oil market. In this article, by using the 1990 input-output table, the inflationary effects of crude oil prices are investigated for Turkey. Under fixed nominal wages, profits, interest and rent earnings, the effect of increasing prices of oil on inflation is limited. However, when wages and the other three factors of income (profit, interest and rent) are adjusted to the general price level that includes the oil price increases, the inflationary effect of oil prices becomes significant. Hence, indexation could have very severe effects on an economy when oil prices increase and, in some cases, could even lead to hyperinflation. © 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
Open Access
Ionospheric total electron content estimation using IONOLAB method
(IEEE, 2007) Nayir, H.; Arıkan, F.; Erol, C. B.; Arıkan, Orhan
Ionosphere which is an important atmospheric layer for HF and satellite communications, can be investigated through Total Electron Content (TEC). Global Positioning System provides cost-effective means for TEC estimation. Regularized TEC estimation method (D-TEI) is developed to estimate high resolution, robust TEC values. The method combines measurements of GPS satellites above 10° elevation limit and estimates can be obtained with 30 s time resolution. In this paper, parameters that are used in D-TEI method such as ionospheric height, weighting function, and satellite receiver biases are studied. It is found that TEC estimation results of D-TEI method is almost independent of ionospheric height. Different weighting functions are tried and the weighting function that minimizes non-ionospheric effects is selected. By using satellite and receiver biases in the correct form consistent TEC estimation results are obtained with IGS analysis centers. In this paper, the method is improved to include phase measurements. Taking either pseudorange or phase measurements as input, high resolution, robust TEC estimates are obtained using D-TEI method.
Open Access
Optimal univariate expectations under high and persistent inflation: new evidence from Turkey
(Elsevier BV, 2005) Us, V.; Ozcan, K. M.
The poor performance of sticky-price models with rational expectations in explaining the inflationary inertia in the US economy constitutes the basis for sticky-price models of near-rational expectations in the recent literature. However, previous studies on inflationary inertia in Turkey not only lack a model of nominal stickiness but also do not try to explain inflation persistence by expectations. Even though, there exists evidence for persistent inflation in Turkey as confirmed by earlier studies, and other studies provide evidence that expectations are neither perfectly rational nor purely adaptive, there is no attempt to link this near-rational behavior to inflationary inertia. Given this gap, this paper, therefore, tests empirically a sticky-price model under the assumption of near-rational expectations on two different inflation episodes in the Turkish economy. The near-rational expectations as described by optimal univariate expectations where agents use information on past inflation optimally while data on other variables are ignored, not only fit the data for both periods but also are not subject to Lucas critique. Alternatively, near-rational expectations are assumed to be backward looking. This alternative scenario shows that optimal univariate expectations perform even better during relatively higher inflation periods. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.