The effects of different inflation risk premiums on interest rate spreads
Date
2004
Authors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Abstract
This paper analyzes how the different types of inflation uncertainty affect a set of interest rate spreads for the UK. Three types of inflation uncertainty - structural uncertainty, impulse uncertainty, and steady-state inflation uncertainty - are defined and derived by using a time-varying parameter model with a GARCH specification. It is found that both the structural and steady-state inflation uncertainties increase interest rate spreads, while the empirical evidence for the impulse uncertainty is not conclusive. © 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Keywords
GARCH, Inflation uncertainty, Interest rates, Kalman filter, Investments, Kalman filtering, Public policy, Risk assessment, Time varying systems, Industrial economics