A measure of the informal sector for the Turkish diesel market

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buir.contributor.authorBerument, M. Hakan
buir.contributor.orcidBerument, M. Hakan|0000-0003-2276-4741
dc.citation.epage649en_US
dc.citation.issueNumber7en_US
dc.citation.spage638en_US
dc.citation.volumeNumber16en_US
dc.contributor.authorYaz, H. F.
dc.contributor.authorDogan, N.
dc.contributor.authorBerument, M. Hakan
dc.date.accessioned2022-02-02T10:52:59Z
dc.date.available2022-02-02T10:52:59Z
dc.date.issued2021-07-09
dc.departmentDepartment of Economicsen_US
dc.description.abstractMeasuring the size of the informal diesel market is important for determining tax revenue losses and identifying inefficiencies in tax policies. The conventional ways of assessing the informal sector entail either not allowing the measurement of the size of the informal sector across time or assuming a stable relationship between diesel consumption and a set of economic variables. This study assesses the informal sector of the Turkish diesel market by using the Kalman filter method. This method allows unobserved values to be estimated with observed variables. Using monthly interpolated GDP, official diesel consumption, and the number of diesel motor vehicles, Turkey’s unobserved informal diesel fuel consumption between January 2005 and February 2020 is estimated. The results obtained with this estimation method reveal that the level of informal diesel consumption increased until 2012–2014; it then started to decline at the end of 2014 and started to increase again after 2018. These dates are associated with periods of economic recession, political developments, and the passing of anti-smuggling legislation.en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1080/15567249.2021.1945168en_US
dc.identifier.eissn1556-7257
dc.identifier.issn1556-7249
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11693/76965
dc.language.isoEnglishen_US
dc.publisherTaylor & Francisen_US
dc.relation.isversionofhttps://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2021.1945168en_US
dc.source.titleEnergy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policyen_US
dc.subjectInformal economyen_US
dc.subjectDiesel consumptionen_US
dc.subjectKalman filteren_US
dc.titleA measure of the informal sector for the Turkish diesel marketen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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