Judgmental forecasts with scenarios and risks

dc.contributor.advisorÖnkal, Dilek
dc.contributor.authorÖz, Esra
dc.date.accessioned2017-07-07T10:57:35Z
dc.date.available2017-07-07T10:57:35Z
dc.date.copyright2017-06
dc.date.issued2017-06
dc.date.submitted2017-07-06
dc.departmentBusiness Information Managementen_US
dc.descriptionCataloged from PDF version of article.en_US
dc.descriptionThesis (Ph.D.): Bilkent University, Department of Business Administration, İhsan Doğramacı Bilkent University, 2017.en_US
dc.descriptionIncludes bibliographical references (leaves 201-221).en_US
dc.description.abstractThe purpose of this thesis is to investigate how scenarios and risks influence judgmental forecasts, forecaster’s confidence, and assessments of likelihood of occurrence. In its attempt to identify the impact of scenarios and risks as channels of forecast advice, this research reports the findings on the use of advice from six experimental groups with business practitioners as participants. Goal was to collect evidence and interpret the reasons and motivations behind judgmental forecasts from actual business life, as well as to identify the possible biases of forecasters after reviewing certain scenarios and risks. This thesis also presents analyses on the use of advice corresponding to the credibility attributes of advisors, i.e., “experienced credibility” and “presumed credibility”. Following a discussion of the results, future research directions are provided.en_US
dc.description.degreePh.D.en_US
dc.description.statementofresponsibilityby Esra Öz.en_US
dc.format.extentxv, 247 leaves : charts (some color) ; 29 cmen_US
dc.identifier.itemidB155887
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11693/33368
dc.language.isoEnglishen_US
dc.publisherBilkent Universityen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen_US
dc.subjectCredibilityen_US
dc.subjectForecast Biasen_US
dc.subjectJudgmenten_US
dc.subjectLikelihood Assessmenten_US
dc.subjectScenariosen_US
dc.titleJudgmental forecasts with scenarios and risksen_US
dc.title.alternativeSenaryo ve risk destekli yargısal tahminleren_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
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