The influence of energy politics on cınflict

Abstract

This thesis analyzes the energy sector and its effects on inter-state conflict in the world, to find out whether the decreasing energy resources in the world influences the probability of conflict. The thesis tries to explain the relation between producer countries and consumer countries in disputes, and to show the interaction between a state’s consumption and its production in order to examine the overall need. Starting with the literature review, the thesis focuses on the various causes of conflict while examining energy scarcity as a source of conflict. The theoretical chapter first explores why and how a state’s energy needs increase that state’s probability of getting involved in conflicts. Next, the theoretical framework in which a producer state is more likely to get into a conflict with a consumer state is explained. Finally, a discussion of the effect of major power presence in the dyad on likelihood of conflict follows. In the comparative case study chapter, the cases of the US-Iraq conflict of 2003, and the Russia-Georgia conflict of 2008 are compared and analyzed within the elaborated theoretical framework.