Signalling in the Turkish-Syrian water conflict
Date
1998
Authors
Güner, S.
Advisor
Instructor
Source Title
Conflict Management and Peace Science
Print ISSN
0738-8942
Electronic ISSN
Publisher
Sage
Volume
16
Issue
2
Pages
185 - 206
Language
English
Type
Article
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Abstract
This paper proposes a simple two-person game of one-sided incomplete information in extensive form to understand strategic choices made in the Turkish-Syrian linkage between water and terrorism. Turkish intelligence established Syrian support of a terrorist group that aims at an independent Kurdish state in eastern Anatolia. Yet, Turkey frequently stipulates the cessation of this support for negotiating with Syria a water agreement over the Euphrates. The game presents Turkey as a player having superior information. Syria is assumed to be uncertain about Turkish preferences with respect to the mutual conflict. This analysis identifies three pooling equilibria indicating that Syrian beliefs do not matter.