Impact of natural gas price on electricity price forecasting in Turkish day-ahead market

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buir.contributor.authorPoyrazoğlu, Oğuzhan Göktuğ
dc.citation.epage439en_US
dc.citation.spage435en_US
dc.contributor.authorPoyrazoğlu, Oğuzhan Göktuğen_US
dc.contributor.authorPoyrazoğlu, G.en_US
dc.coverage.spatialCappadocia, Turkeyen_US
dc.date.accessioned2020-01-28T10:46:22Z
dc.date.available2020-01-28T10:46:22Z
dc.date.issued2019
dc.departmentDepartment of Mechanical Engineeringen_US
dc.descriptionDate of Conference: 12-15 June 2019en_US
dc.descriptionConference Name: 1st IEEE Global Power, Energy and Communication Conference, GPECOM 2019en_US
dc.description.abstractThe electricity is a regular commodity that is being sold and bought in a highly transparent and efficient market in Turkey. The market is operated by EXIST and an hourly energy price is formed for every hour in the day-ahead market. In Sept. 2018, EXIST also found a central natural gas market in Turkey which enables a ground for all shareholders in the natural gas industry. This study examines the impact of natural gas prices formed in the market on the electricity price. Different predictors are tested to lower the mean absolute percentage error. Addition of past natural gas price into the forecasting model reduces the error from 15.85% to 14.31 % when the average of the last two weeks' natural gas price is used. This may indicate that the current natural gas price affects the electricity market two weeks later. And the final model also reached the 6.67% error for a Saturday, which is a significantly accurate forecast for a volatile electricity market.en_US
dc.description.provenanceSubmitted by Zeynep Aykut (zeynepay@bilkent.edu.tr) on 2020-01-28T10:46:22Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Impact_of_natural_gas_price_on_electricity_price_forecasting_in_Turkish_day-ahead_market.pdf: 1124874 bytes, checksum: 03d62654dfc807a32ac0e351209d50f6 (MD5)en
dc.description.provenanceMade available in DSpace on 2020-01-28T10:46:22Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Impact_of_natural_gas_price_on_electricity_price_forecasting_in_Turkish_day-ahead_market.pdf: 1124874 bytes, checksum: 03d62654dfc807a32ac0e351209d50f6 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2019en
dc.identifier.doi10.1109/GPECOM.2019.8778514en_US
dc.identifier.eisbn9781538680865
dc.identifier.isbn9781538680872
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11693/52870
dc.language.isoEnglishen_US
dc.publisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.en_US
dc.relation.isversionofhttps://dx.doi.org/10.1109/GPECOM.2019.8778514en_US
dc.source.titleProceedings of the 1st IEEE Global Power, Energy and Communication Conference, GPECOM 2019en_US
dc.subjectElectricity price forecastingen_US
dc.subjectNatural gas priceen_US
dc.subjectPrice formationen_US
dc.subjectMultiple linear regressionen_US
dc.subjectInteraction regressionen_US
dc.subjectLagged priceen_US
dc.titleImpact of natural gas price on electricity price forecasting in Turkish day-ahead marketen_US
dc.typeConference Paperen_US

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