3+1 Essays on the Turkish economy

Abstract

This dissertation comprise of four essays. The first essay studies the relationship between treasury auction maturity and auction interest rates. Using the Turkish auction data from 1988 to 2004, a reciprocal linkage between auction interest rates and maturities is observed, especially for the 1995-2000 period. This suggests that under an adverse shock, treasury decreases the auction maturity in order not to increase interest rates too much. A change in this reciprocal relationship is also reported for the post-2001 era. The second essay assesses the effect of USD-Euro parity on a small open economy for an economy where its exports are predominantly denominated in Euros and imports are denominated in USD. The empirical evidence suggests that a positive innovation in USD-Euro parity appreciates the local currency, decreases inflation and increases output. The third essay studies the relationship between on-budget and off-budget expenditures in Turkey and concludes that information content of the budget deficit statistics is not empty; however, it might be misleading in assessing fiscal stance for Turkey. The final essay investigates the connection between Turkish industrial production performance and the success of a popular Turkish football team, namely Fenerbahce. The success of Fenerbahce is interpreted as a proxy for the workers' mood or morale. Performing a transfer function analysis on my monthly data set, I reveal a positive feedback from Fenerbahce's success, which proxies workers' mood/morale, to economic performance. Evidence of the effects of games against domestic rivals on industrial performance is not statistically significant.