Early warning systems for currency and systemic banking crises in Vietnam

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buir.contributor.authorŞensoy, Ahmet
buir.contributor.orcidŞensoy, Ahmet|0000-0001-7967-5171
dc.citation.epage375en_US
dc.citation.issueNumber3
dc.citation.spage350en_US
dc.citation.volumeNumber34
dc.contributor.authorHa, D.
dc.contributor.authorNguyenb, P.
dc.contributor.authorNguyen, D. K.
dc.contributor.authorŞensoy, Ahmet
dc.date.accessioned2022-03-03T08:56:23Z
dc.date.available2022-03-03T08:56:23Z
dc.date.issued2021-08-20
dc.departmentDepartment of Managementen_US
dc.description.abstractThis paper introduces a new early warning system (EWS) for cur rency and systemic banking crises in emerging and frontier emer ging markets, which combines the methods of Signal, Logit/Probit, BMA, and 2SLS. We apply this framework to the case of Vietnam, a fast-growing and leading frontier emerging market. Using data covering the period from January 2002 to December 2016, our EWS suggests a low crisis probability for the 2017–2018 period. The empirical results also reveal the importance of eight key indicators, namely securities index, real effective exchange rate, exports, M2/ reserves, bank deposits, reserves, M2 multiplier and the impact of the 2008–2009 global financial crisis in the success of the new EWS. Our results support the earlier findings on i) the impact of dollarisa tion on currency crises and ii) the impact of the global financial crisis on both currency and systemic banking crises in Vietnam.en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1080/14631377.2021.1965362en_US
dc.identifier.eissn1465-3958
dc.identifier.issn1463-1377
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11693/77670
dc.language.isoEnglishen_US
dc.publisherRoutledgeen_US
dc.relation.isversionofhttps://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2021.1965362en_US
dc.source.titlePost-Communist Economiesen_US
dc.subjectEarly warning indicatorsen_US
dc.subjectCurrency and banking crisesen_US
dc.subjectVietnamen_US
dc.titleEarly warning systems for currency and systemic banking crises in Vietnamen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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