Security implications of Turkey’s march towards EU membership

Abstract

Contrary to what many believe, both inside and outside the country, Turkey’s march towards membership in the European Union (EU) may cause serious deficiencies in its security As a country which has traditionally taken a hard-line stance on security and defence matters, Turkey now seems to be adopting the ‘soft-security’ approach of the EU.1 Turkey’s dramatic shift in its stance, however, occurs at a time when membership in the EU cannot be seen on the horizon. Even the most optimistic analysts suggest a minimum of 15 years for full membership after the start of accession negotiations; these could well turn out to be a never-ending process. During the long time before attaining full membership, most of Turkey’s security concerns will persist, if not worsen. This is particularly true of the issues with its Middle Eastern neighbours such as Iran and Syria. But in its dealings with these countries, Turkey cannot rely on the ‘yet to be decided’ security and defence policies of the EU as the Europeans themselves have not been able to put together a comprehensive document outlining their long-term policy objectives or the mainstays of a security and defence strategy for the Union.2 Moreover, the attitude of most EU member states towards Turkey’s southeastern neighbours has always been diametrically different from that of Turkey and there is no sign of change today.