Exchange rate regime, world oil prices, and the Mexican economy

Abstract

This thesis studies the effects of the exchange rate regime of the Mexican economy on how the oil price shocks affect the domestic economic performance by considering the period from January 1992 to December 2019. The empirical evidence reported here reveals that a positive oil price shock appreciates the local currency, increases the interest rate, output, and prices. Furthermore, once the exchange rate channel is closed, an increase in the interest rate and prices will be higher. However, we could not find statistically significant evidence that the effect on output does change with the exchange rate regime. This conclusion is parallel of a country that has a low level of inflation commitment.