Unveiling the process behind counterinsurgency: three essays on the impact of leadership, group and societal dynamics on policymaking

Abstract

This dissertation endeavors to unravel the intricate dynamics influencing incumbent leaders’ counterinsurgency strategies, particularly the determinants behind their choices between violent and non-violent approaches in combating insurgencies. By adopting a comprehensive approach, this research delves into domestic political processes, group-constituency dynamics, and governmentsociety relations to elucidate the underlying patterns in counterinsurgency policymaking. Empirical investigation reveals that inexperienced leaders are prone to resorting to violence as a counterinsurgency tactic, whereas their experienced counterparts exhibit a propensity to eschew violent measures, opting instead for a blend of non-violent strategies. Furthermore, the influence of leader experience is contingent upon regime type, with short tenure leaders displaying nuanced responses depending on whether they govern within democratic or anocratic frameworks. Moreover, the study uncovers a trend wherein governments tend to maintain non-responsiveness when confronted with terrorist groups possessing a positive reputation yet become more aggressive when facing those with a negative reputation. Notably, in societies characterized by heightened affective polarization, governments exhibit a heightened inclination toward resorting exclusively to violent means in addressing rebel threats. By shedding light on these intricate dynamics, this research makes a significant contribution to conflict studies, paving the way for a more nuanced understanding of the interplay between conflict dynamics at different levels and counterinsurgency efforts.