Saudi-Egyptian rivalry for MENA leadership during the Syrian civil war: a role theory approach

Abstract

This thesis analyzes how states’ conception of the regional leadership role is translated into foreign policy behavior in the Middle East. By taking its theoretical framework from role theory, the thesis hypothesizes that states’ national role conceptions can help shape their foreign policy behavior, as they can provide guidelines for long-term patterns of conduct in foreign affairs. Based on this initial hypothesis, the thesis further argues that aspiring states will likely engage in regional conflicts, as they can create opportunities to enact the role of regional leadership. In pursuit of this foreign policy role, states are also expected to implement particular foreign policy decisions that can help reflect the state’s influence at the regional level. In order to analyze the relationship between regional leadership roles and their performance by states, the case study method is used in this thesis. The two case studies conducted in this project are on Saudi and Egyptian foreign policy behaviors in the Syrian civil war during the 2011-2016 period, and secondary data on the national role conceptions of these states during this period are driven by the data collected by Akbaba and Özdamar (2019). The results of this thesis help contribute to the literature on foreign policy analysis and role theory focused on the Middle East, while also having policy-wise implications for foreign policy decision makers.