User perspective in judgmental adjustments : nested adjustments and explanations

Abstract

The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the judgmental adjustment behavior of forecast users on externally provided predictions. "Nested judgmental adjustments" are defined as a series of revisions on a set of given forecasts. These adjustments are commonly used in practice to integrate judgment into forecasting processes. Explanations accompanying predictions may also influence forecast acceptance and adjustment in organizations. To study nested judgmental adjustments, explanations and user perspective, this research reports the results of a survey and three experiments. The survey is conducted with forecasting practitioners to enhance our understanding of the reasons and motivations behind judgmental adjustments, as well as to examine expectations of forecast users and perceptions of forecast quality. In addition, experimental studies are carried out to investigate the effects of structural characteristics of explanations and the presence of original forecasts on adjustment behavior. Results are discussed and future research directions are given.