An analysis of the sources of import growth in Turkey: 1985-90

Abstract

The sources of import growth in Turkey during the 1985-90 period are decomposed into four casual factors domestic demand expansion, export expansion, import substitution and technological change, using the inputoutput framework. Domestic price indices for imports and gross output were constructed, and the 1990 input-output table was double deflated into constant 1985 prices. The decomposition results are analyzed within the context of the economic conditions in Turkey during the period. It is observed that the structure of the causal factors have changed compared to the previous period of 1979-85. The contribution of export expansion is observed to be negligible, and domestic demand expansion and import substitution are the most prominent sources of import growth between 1985 and 1990.