Macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy in the United States

Abstract

This thesis examines the macroeconomic effects of unconventional policy with smooth local projections in the United States. Unconventional monetary policy is identified using Swanson (2021)’s methodology. I find that the most effective policy tool is the target factor for unemployment and industrial production; however, its effect is not persistent as other tools. For instance, large scale asset purchases (LSAP) induce a significant and persistent impact on industrial production and forward guidance for unemployment. LSAP is the most successful instrument for inflation in the short run, but inflation responds more persistently to forward guidance. Therefore, a mix in which all three tools are used to manage a successful monetary policy can solve short-term and long-term problems for each macroeconomic variable. The findings here are consistent with the previous literature, and they are even supportive.