Iran's nuclear weapons development program : an assessment of the threat posed to its neighbors

Abstract

Throughout its long history, Iran has always sought to be a world power. Regardless of its regime and ideology, it has pursued an ambitious policy despite its actual weakness. In order to accomplish its perpetual goal, Iran has searched the necessary political and military means. Since late 1950s, Iranian leadership has believed that nuclear weapons have been the best appropriate means for this purpose. Thus, Tehran worked on every way to obtain nuclear technology, sometimes clandestinely, that will provide it with the option of developing and deploying a nuclear weapons capability which will give the ability to project power to its periphery. By the time, Iran acquired a considerable experience regarding to nuclear technology particularly with the help of Russia and China, even though it couldn't succeed to build its planned nuclear power plants yet. Notwithstanding its membership to the nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty, with its ongoing determined efforts, Iran seems to have nuclear weapons in the near future. Besides attempts to acquire nuclear infrastructure and scientific knowledge Iran has also embarked on a ballistic missile development program. Having the assistance of Russia, China, and North Korea, Iran obtained its indigenous ballistic missile production capability. Should Iran become a nuclear weapon power with its IRBMs or ICBMs as delivery means, it will alter the balance of power in the region and affect negatively the Gulf, the Middle East, the Caucasus, Central Asia, the Mediterranean, Asia the Minor, and extra regional states such as the US and Britain.