The economic impact of recession announcements

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buir.contributor.authorLee, Sang Seok
buir.contributor.orcidLee, Sang Seok|0000-0001-9518-9464
dc.citation.epage52en_US
dc.citation.spage40en_US
dc.citation.volumeNumber120en_US
dc.contributor.authorEggers, A. C.
dc.contributor.authorEllison, M.
dc.contributor.authorLee, Sang Seok
dc.date.accessioned2022-02-21T10:59:27Z
dc.date.available2022-02-21T10:59:27Z
dc.date.issued2021-03-19
dc.departmentDepartment of Economicsen_US
dc.description.abstractThe convention in the news media is to announce a recession if a country experiences two consecutive quarters of negative growth. We exploit the arbitrary threshold implied by this practice to identify the economic impact of recession announcements through a Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD). Estimation results show that news of a recession leads to a discontinuous fall in consumer confidence, consumption growth and final estimates of GDP growth in a panel of countries. The effect is large, robust and statistically significant.en_US
dc.embargo.release2023-03-19
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.jmoneco.2021.03.002en_US
dc.identifier.eissn1873-1295
dc.identifier.issn0304-3932
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11693/77539
dc.language.isoEnglishen_US
dc.publisherElsevieren_US
dc.relation.isversionofhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2021.03.002en_US
dc.source.titleJournal of Monetary Economicsen_US
dc.subjectBusiness cycleen_US
dc.subjectRecessionsen_US
dc.subjectRegression discontinuity designen_US
dc.subjectNews mediaen_US
dc.titleThe economic impact of recession announcementsen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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