A look at nuclear terrorism: an assessment of the fourth wave of nuclear deterrence theory

Abstract

Along with the unprecedented attacks of September 11 by al-Qaeda, violent non- state actors entered the realm of strategic studies irreversibly. Since then, a growing number of studies conducted as a part of the fourth wave of deterrence research had differentiating opinions on the prospect of success in deterring these actors. In this thesis, I aim to contribute to this literature by conducting an empirical study with an individual level of analysis on nuclear deterrence against the nuclear terrorism threat. Borrowing from previous research, I measure deterrence by the willingness of the aggressor to initiate an attack during a crisis and investigate the impact of actor type on this willingness. I also identify three mediating factors related to the location, ideology, and organizational characteristics of the actor type that can be accounted for this impact. Utilizing a survey experiment design conducted online among university students, I gathered novel data. I used this data to conduct ordered logistic regression and distribution analysis. Results from the ordered logit model do not meet conventional levels of significance to establish an association between actor type and deterrence success. However, the results of the distribution analysis mostly support the effect of mediating factors on the use of nuclear weapons.