China in Central Asia: opportunities and risks of emerging Chinese hegemony for regional states

Abstract

This thesis aims to analyze the opportunities and risks of the emerging Chinese hegemony in Central Asia for the five regional states namely Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan with a special focus on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The Chinese hegemony in the region is a novel and ongoing process that is a consequence of the interplay between three necessary but not sufficient factors that are China’s rise, absence of other great powers, and Central Asian needs. Framing the opportunities and risks in three main categories of politics, economy, and security, this thesis argues that closer political economic partnership with China in its current hegemonic fashion benefit Central Asian republics in the short-run while it bears significant risks in the long-run. In each category, this thesis offers analyses of a wide array of issues that are either present on the ground or have high likelihood to emerge in the near future. The opportunities range from multivector foreign policy to development finance while the risks include social unrest, trade asymmetry, and militarization of the BRI.