Türkiye’de piyasa göstergelerinden para politikası beklentilerinin ölçülmesi

Abstract

This paper compares the ability of different market instruments in terms of predicting monetary policy decisions to find out which one best captures market participants’ policy expectations. Towards this end, policy rate expectations implied by various market instruments and different approaches are derived for the period between July 2006 and October 2009. Empirical results show that market based monetary policy expectations in Turkey can most successfully be obtained by using the one week Turkish Lira Interbank Bid Rate (TRLIBID).