Demographic shock transmission from large to small countries: an overlapping generations CGE analysis

Abstract

International commodity and capital flows provide channels for the transmission of the effects of demographic changes in large countries onto small open economies by altering the prices and interest rates facing them. This implies that even small countries with relatively young populations are potentially vulnerable to the effects of population aging in large industrial economies. To address this issue, which has largely been overlooked in previous literature, this paper considers the case of European Union and Turkey and shows, within an overlapping generations general equilibrium framework, that spillovers of the demographic shock in Europe would intensify the changes that Turkey would experience during its own demographic transition. © 2001 Elsevier Science Inc.