How do target states respond to external state support of rebel groups? The response to sponsorship dataset (RSD) and the determinants of target responses

Abstract

This dissertation examines how target states respond to external state support of rebel groups by introducing a new dataset. The Response to Sponsorship Dataset (RSD) covers 58 target states, 102 supporter states, and 150 rebel groups, forming 455 triadic cases and 3719 observations. As the first dataset to account for target state behavior against state supporters, this thesis uses the RSD to conceptualize target responses by providing a typology of responses and response strategies and identifying the determinants of responses by target states including state-level and group-level factors. This research demonstrates that target states use coercive and non-coercive strategies to coerce or persuade state supporters into abandoning their assistance for rebel groups. Intentional (direct) support types, higher levels of support, interstate strategic rivalry and rebel diplomacy cause the adoption of coercive responses by target states while de facto (indirect) support types, decrease coercive behavior from target states. Interstate formal alliances are found to be decreasing only the adoption of mixed responses by target states. This study contributes to the existing literature on external support of rebel groups, conflict management, and foreign policies of target states towards state sponsors of rebel groups.