Effect of central bank governor speeches on financial markets

Abstract

This thesis examines the impact of speeches by central bank governors from European Central Bank (ECB), Deutsche Bundesbank, Bank of France, Bank of Spain and Bank of Italy on OIS yields, bond yields, stock prices and exchange rate. Using two standard event study designs via Rigobon and Sack (2004) and Gürkaynak et al. (2005), the study finds that financial markets are sensitive to central bank governor speeches. OIS and sovereign bond yields with maturities from 5 to 30 years respond significantly to central bank speeches. For stock prices, the analysis includes the Euro Stoxx50, Euro SX7E, German DAX30, French CAC40, Spanish IBEX35, and Italian MIB30. Even if there are some positive responses, the results align with the typical understanding that a negative relationship exists between stock prices and monetary policy shocks. Lastly, the exchange rate is the least responsive asset among the others, with significant reactions observed in speeches by the ECB governor and the Bundesbank governor on the euro- USD dollar exchange Overall, national central bank governors affect financial markets. Among various assets, their voices are particularly influential. However, while the speeches of periphery countries’ central bank governors have an impact, ECB governor speeches usually dominate those of the periphery countries’ central bank governor speeches. In contrast, the central bank governor speeches of core countries, Germany and France, often have more influence than ECB governor speeches.