Statistical properties of genetic learning in a model of exchange rate

Date
2000
Authors
Arifovic, J.
Gençay, R.
Advisor
Instructor
Source Title
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Print ISSN
0165-1889
Electronic ISSN
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Volume
24
Issue
5-7
Pages
981 - 1005
Language
English
Type
Article
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Abstract

We study statistical properties of the time series of the exchange rate data generated in the environment where agents update their savings and portfolio decisions using the genetic algorithm. The genetic algorithm adaptation takes place within an overlapping generations model with two currencies and the free-trade, flexible exchange rate system. The theoretical model implies a constant exchange rate under the perfect foresight assumption. Under the genetic algorithm learning, the model's equilibrium dynamics is not constant but exhibits bounded oscillations. The time series analysis of the data indicates that the dynamics of the exchange rate returns is chaotic. Out-of-equilibrium inequality of rates of return on two currencies prompts the genetic algorithm agents to take advantage of the arbitrage opportunities by increasing the amount of the currency with higher rate of return in their portfolios. This profit seeking results in chaotic patterns of the exchange rate series. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Course
Other identifiers
Book Title
Keywords
Algorithm, Economies, Stability, Agents
Citation
Published Version (Please cite this version)