Modelling The Turkish perception of foreign policy options : water conflict between Syria and Turkey

Abstract

This thesis is a study on modelling the Turkish perception of foreign policy options regarding the water conflict between Syria and Turkey. A game theoretical model is used to analyze the current situation of the water conflict. Assurance Game is used as a model to analyze the conflict in question. It is argued that, Turkey perceives the current situation as an assurance game. In this study, the analysis showed that, a cooperative policy for the resolution of the conflict from the Turkish perspective is in fact the source of the conflict for the Syrian side. The paradox inherent in the perception of the conflict by both parties to the conflict makes it hard to reach a resolution. The study showed that, resolution of the current conflict, from the Turkish perspective, is the cooperation of both states regarding the linkage established between the water conflict and the alleged Syrian support provided for PKK terrorism in Turkey.