Target state responses to externalsupport of rebel groups: revealingthe impact of support level andinterstate strategic interaction

Abstract

How do target states react to third-party sponsorship of rebel groups? In this article, we provide atypology of responses from target states based on their severity and comprehensiveness level. Weargue that the external support level and existing strategic interaction between targets and spon-sors are crucial to explain the variation in target responses toward state sponsors since they affectthe target states’ level of perceived threat. We test our theoretical claims using an original datasetfeaturing target responses between 1991 and 2010. Our findings show that strategic rivalry is themost crucial factor in increasing the severity and comprehensiveness of responses. Higher levels ofsupport for rebel groups increase only coercive responses and do not impact comprehensiveness,whereas formal alliances decrease the adoption of mixed responses. Our study contributes to theliterature on the external support of rebels and conflict management with implications for predict-ing target states’ responses to sponsorship.