Turkey’s isolation from the regionalization process in the Eastern Mediterranean: a case study of the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF)

Abstract

The recent offshore gas discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean has highlighted new conflictual and cooperative dynamics in the region. The study investigates the dynamics of the regionalization process with a special focus on the emergence of the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF). More specifically, the study questions how Turkey is isolated from the regionalization process, namely the EMGF, in the Eastern Mediterranean. A framing analysis is conducted to trace which ideas prevailed; and process tracing is used to explain how Turkish, Greek and Greek Cypriot ideas and material interests shaped the regionalization process between 2010 and 2020. It has been argued that conditioning effects of cognitive priors, redefinition of initial ideas and emulation of outside ideas combined with actor’s material interests within the context of changing domestic politics have shaped Turkey’s isolation from the regionalization process.