Preconditions for successful rapprochement : a comparative analysis of the Greek-Turkish rapproachement efforts

Abstract

The current study provides an in-depth analysis of four distinct cases of rapprochements that took place between Greece and Turkey. Two of these cases concern successful rapprochements, while the other two concern unsuccessful rapprochement cases. The goal of the study is to examine the factors that shaped the outcome of the rapprochement, and discuss which the main preconditions for a successful rapprochement are. The study examines a number of independent variables, which derive mainly from the International Relations literature, as well as, other similar studies. The methodology employed in order to examine the explanatory power of these variables is structured-focused case comparison which was first proposed by Alexander George, coupled with process-tracing. The research concludes with a comparison of allfour rapprochement cases that are based on the following three different axes; a contrast of the prerapprochement periods, an evaluation of the impact of the process on the rapprochements’ definitive indicators, and an assessment of the impact of each independent variable on the outcome of the rapprochement. Of the 8 independent variables that are put to test, it is 'leadership' and 'state identity' that are observed to be causing variation on the dependent variable across all four cases. On the contrary, the GRIT strategy did not influence the outcome of the rapprochement in any of the cases discussed.