Real estate and mortgage crisis : a study on the United States

Abstract

Like every asset price boom, the US Real Estate Boom expanded the economy until the burst occurred. Although the existence of an “irrational” boom was apparent, it has been questioned whether the increase suggested a bubble. This thesis analyzes the evolution of the US Real Estate Crisis and suggests that the real estate price increase was a bubble. A time series analysis is performed for the years 1990-2006, using monthly data on the US house prices, consumer prices, income per capita, population, unemployment rate, mortgage rate and housing starts. The results indicate that consumer prices and income per capita explain the trend in the housing prices, prior to the bubble. During the bubble, except population the fundamentals fall short in explaining the housing prices.