Spillovers from U.S. monetary policy to emerging markets: the role of fundamentals

Abstract

The impact of U.S. monetary policy on emerging markets (EMEs) has long been a subject of significant academic and policy interest. This thesis explores the heterogeneity of these spillovers and the role of macroeconomic fundamentals in shaping them by employing an event study methodology utilizing high-frequency data. I use a broad set of emerging markets that span from 2000 to 2022. It reveals that spillovers are not uniform but vary across countries and time periods, influenced significantly by factors such as reserve adequacy and current account balances. The study underscores the importance of robust economic fundamentals in enhancing resilience against external monetary shocks. The findings suggest that policymakers in emerging markets should prioritize strengthening macroeconomic fundamentals to weaken adverse spillover effects. This includes maintaining robust fiscal and monetary policies, ensuring adequate foreign exchange reserves, and fostering stable financial markets.