Item Open AccessAB- Türkiye ilişkileri sürecinde Türk şeker sektörü simülasyon sonuçları(Sanayi ve Teknoloji Bakanlığı Sanayi ve Verimlilik Genel Müdürlüğü, 2008) Aytüre, S.; Demir, Nazmi; Demir, NazmiBu araştırmada, dokuz bağıntılı bir ekonometrik model yardımı ile alternatif senaryolar altında, Türkiye'nin şeker arz-talep dengeleri simüle edilmektedir. Araştırmanın ortaya çıkardığı en önemli bulgu Türkiye'nin AB'ye 2014' de üye olması halinde önemli bir şeker ithalatçısı konumuna gireceğidir. Şeker sektörü giderek göreceli biçimde küçülecek ve 1.5 milyon ton civarındaki bir üretim eşiğinde dengelenecektir. Fabrikalarının üçte birinin rekabet edemeyerek kapanacağı, pancar ekim alanları ve pancar üretici sayılarının %35'den fazla azalacağı beklenen şeker sektöründe ortaya çıkacak işsizlik, gelir kayıpları, sosyal ve çevresel olumsuzluklara şimdiden çare aranması gerekmektedir. Çoğu sulanmakta olan ve terkedilmesi beklenen pancar ekim alanlarına ekilebilecek alternatif ürünlerin ve/veya tarım dışı gelir kaynaklarının saptanması için çalışmalara başlanması kaçınılmazdır. Şekerpancarı üreticilerinden ve şeker fabrikalarından ayakta kalabilecek olanların AB nin kendi içinde ayakta kalabileceklerle rekabet edebilmeleri için en emin yol tarladan nihai tüketiciye kadar şeker sektörünün tüm üretim aşamalarında verimliliği arttıracak adımları atmaktır. Pancarda polar şeker oranını ve verim düzeyini arttıracak pancar tohumlukları ve bunlara uygun agronomik koşulların sağlanması, ölçeğe getiri için fabrikaların birleşmeleri, kapasitelerini arttırmaları, yabancı sermaye ile teknolojilerini yenilemeleri birçok alternatif arasında sadece birkaç çıkış yolu olarak görülmelidir. Item Open AccessSentiment and beta herding in the Borsa Istanbul (BIST)(Emerald Group Publishing, 2014) Demir, Nazmi; Mahmud, Syed F.; Solakoğlu, Mehmet Nihat; Batten, J. A.; Wagner, N. F.This study searches for sentimental herding in Borsa Istanbul (BIST) during the last decade using a state-space model employing cross-section standard deviations of systematic risk (Beta). It has been found that herding toward the market in the BIST-100 is both statistically significant and persistent independently from market fundamentals such as the volatility of returns and the levels of market returns. Herding trends over the sample period indicate that the financial crisis in 2000–2001 appeared to bring about sentimental herding in BIST which was followed by a calm period during which investors turned to fundamentals. Thereafter, we observe a volatile adverse herding pattern till the end of 2011 due to the confusing environment caused by the internal and external events. Item Open AccessThe influence of M&As on firm value: the Turkish experience(Springer, 2007) Solakoğlu, M. Nihat; Orhan, M.; Gregoriou, G. N.; Neuhauser, K. L.World economies were exposed to several merger and acquisition waves within the last century. Moreover, more recently, a shift of M&A activities from regional to more global nature has been observed (Gugler et al 2003). These waves, as discussed in the literature, can occur either because of some type of industry shocks or because of market timing Harford (2005)’. Up until the last decade, though, Turkish economy did not have a significant experience with mergers and acquisitions, either domestic or cross-country. More global nature of M&A activities and the emergence of the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) played an important role in this change. In particular, it became less costly for Turkish firms to raise capital and consider strategies to acquire or merge with other firms. In addition, it can be argued that existence of the stock exchange has caused information and monitoring costs to fall with improved regulations and laws. As a result, it became easier for acquirer and target firms to evaluate costs and benefits of merging or acquisition strategies. Item Open AccessStructural change in agriculture and water requirements in Turkey(Emerald Publishing Limited, 2003) Sayan, S.; Demir, N.This paper investigates the effects of the post-1980 structural reforms in Turkey on the strength of inter-industry linkages between agricultural and non-agricultural sectors, and discusses the implications of the changing strength of these linkages for water consumption by the Turkish economy as a whole. For this purpose, we first solve demand- and supply-side input output models under alternative scenarios concerning the nature of linkages between agricultural and non-agricultural sectors in 1979 and 1990. We then calculate the direct and indirect water requirements of production in 32 sectors and estimate the amount of water embodied in agricultural and manufacturing exports of Turkey. Item Open AccessRegional technical efficiency in the Turkish agriculture: a note(University of Delhi * Delhi School of Economics, 1998) Demir, N.; Mahmud, S.A panel data, (67 provinces and the years 1993-1995) of the Turkish agriculture, was employed to estimate technical efficiencies for six agricultural regions and 67 provinces using maximum likelihood techniques (ML). Stochastic frontier based on Cobb-Douglas production function with agricultural value added as the endogenous variable and land, labour and capital as the exogenous variables was estimated. Index of capital stocks was obtained by principal component technique. The results show that differences in technical efficiencies by regions and provinces are significant. Furthermore, it has been shown that some of these differences can be explained by location specific factors such as amount of precipitation, market accessibility and population density. Item Open AccessThe effect of news on return volatility and volatility persistence: The Turkish economy during crisis(Taylor & Francis Group, 2014) Solakoğlu, M. N.; Demir, N.In this study, we investigate the effect of public information arrival on return volatility for Borsa Istanbul. New information arrival is measured by the number of daily news headlines for Turkey, the United States, and a sample of European countries with close trading ties with Turkey. We classify news headlines by country and type of news. Our findings indicate that, during a recessionary period, new information arrival causes return volatility mostly to decline. Moreover, both economic news and European news cause a significant decline in volatility persistence. However, when news is classified based on origin and type, a larger decline in persistence is observed. Item Open AccessDoes morbidity matter? Perceived health status in explaining the share of healthcare expenditures(Routledge, 2012) Solakoğlu, E. G.; Civan, A.We argue that the demand for healthcare services can be better explained by individual need based variables rather than by macro variables such as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and the share of public healthcare expenditures. This study introduces a self-rated health variable called morbidity that describes individual needs for health care – healthy individuals need less health care than sick ones – and that is measured through personal interviews conducted by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). In addition, stationary properties of the series are considered in order to understand the effect of shocks to expenditure behaviour on health care. Stationary test results show that we should not only use differenced values for the model variables but also incorporate time-specific effects into the model. Using the appropriate specification and accounting for the time effect, we find evidence supporting the hypothesis that the share of healthcare expenditure in GDP rises with the increased need for health care. The need for health care is also found to be more important than per capita GDP when explaining the change in the share of healthcare expenditures for the examined countries. Item Open AccessOperational risk and stock market returns: evidence from Turkey(John Wiley and Sons, 2011) Solakoglu, M. N.; Kose, K. A.Following several high-severity, low-frequency events in the financial sector, operational risk has gained importance both for regulators and managers of financial sector firms during the last decade. The banking sector in Turkey also experienced a severe crisis, due not only to economic conditions but also to events directly related to operational risk. However, it was only by mid-2007 that banks in Turkey were required to have necessary capital for operational risk. This study investigates the banking sector in Turkey in relation to operational risk. In addition, the study analyzes the reaction of stock market return to operational risk events between 1998 and 2007 using event study analysis. We find that returns show a negative reaction starting right before the event date. Moreover, this negative reaction appears to be significant for pre-2002 events but not for events after 2002. © 2009 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved. Item Open AccessExchange rate exposure and real exports(Routledge, 2010) Solakoglu, M. N.This study investigates the relationship between real exports and exchange rate risk for Turkish firms between 2001 and 2003. Different from earlier studies, the analysis is conducted at the firm level with an exchange rate risk specific to the individual firm. Results show that real exports are negatively impacted by an increase in exchange rate risk. In addition, size of the trade volume and the dependence on domestic market for revenue generation are found to be important for the aforementioned relationship. Item Open AccessHerding in Middle Eastern frontier markets: are local and global factors important?(Elsevier, 2016) Demir, Nazmi; Solakoğlu, M. Nihat; Andrikopoulos, P.; Gregoriou, G. N.; Kallinterakis, V.In this study we look for sentimental herding in a sample of frontier markets in the Middle East, using a state-space approach. The stock markets we consider are Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait. We use daily data to estimate monthly betas from a market model and test to see whether estimated monthly betas are biased, which would indicate the existence of herding or adverse herding. We also analyze the effect of extreme global and local events, and market conditions, on herding behavior. For extreme global market conditions we use major events such as the 2007-08 global financial crisis, as well as extreme variations in market returns. Furthermore, given the significance of petroleum in these markets, extreme price changes in spot-oil prices are also used for extreme market conditions. As for local events, we also test to see if events during the so-called Arab Spring in the region-eg, the Syrian internal war and Egyptian political movements-have had any impact on herd behavior. We find the existence of herding and adverse herding in Kuwait and Qatar, but not in Bahrain and Oman, revealing that market category is not a determinant of herding. In addition, our results show that while herding in Kuwait is influenced by local and global factors, herding in Qatar is influenced by oil returns and oil return volatility. © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Item Open AccessNews releases and stock market volatility: intraday evidence from borsa Istanbul(Elsevier Inc., 2015) Solakoglu, M. N.; Demir, N.In this study, we investigate the effect of public information arrival on return volatility for Borsa Istanbul (BIST) using intraday, 60-min returns between October 3, 2013 and March 31, 2014. Stock return and return volatility is expected to react to news arrival if such news causes market participants to adjust their portfolios. To measure new information arrival, we count the number of daily news headlines for Turkey, the United States, and a sample of European countries with close trading ties with Turkey. Furthermore, we focus on economic news and particularly on news on real economy and inflation. In addition, along with the BIST100 index, which is the most commonly used market portfolio index, we also utilize Second National Market (SNM) index. Our results show that news arrival influences return volatility negatively, and it has no significant effect on index returns. Moreover, return volatility responds significantly to negative surprises in GDP and inflation announcements. Finally, we do not provide evidence that indicates differences in the usage of information that arrives to the market between BIST100 and SNM investors. © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Item Open AccessImpact of macroeconomic indicators on short selling: evidence from the Tokyo stock exchange(Elsevier Inc., 2012) Solakoğlu, M. Nihat; Orhan, Mehmet; Gregoriou, G. N.This chapter examines the existence of cointegration between short selling volume and the Nikkei 225 Index to investigate the permanent relation between the two. For this purpose, the Japanese financial markets with monthly data from November 2005 to October 2009 were examined to document if a causality relation exists between short selling volume and macroeconomic variables, such as GDP, bond yield, and exchange rate, as well as the Nikkei 225 Index. Given the characteristics of Japanese short sellers, it is expected that a causal relationship exists between macroeconomic variables and short selling volume, which indicates that Japanese short sellers are informed traders. Based on this finding, it can also be assumed indirectly that the tipping hypothesis does not apply to Japanese short sellers. In addition, the existence of cointegration between short selling volume and the Nikkei 225 Index are investigated to determine whether a long run relationship exists between the two. The study found that the short selling volume, the Nikkei 225 Index, and the exchange rate have unit roots and are thus nonstationary; however, the bond yield rate is stationary. Using the Granger causality test, it also showed bidirectional causality between short selling volume and the Nikkei 225 Index. However, there is no causality between short selling volume and GDP, as well as bond yield rate. The findings also document that exchange rate Granger causes a short selling volume, but short selling volume does not Granger cause exchange rate. These findings thus indicate that the short sellers' information set contains the Nikkei 225 Index and exchange rate movements, but not macro fundamentals. The results also document the permanent long run relationship between short selling volume and the Nikkei 225 Index. © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.