Browsing by Subject "Turkish economy"
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Item Open Access An applied endogenous growth model with human and knowledge capital accumulation for the Turkish economy(Routledge, 2015-10-02) Voyvoda, E.; Yeldan, E.We analytically investigate and assess the interactions between knowledge-driven growth, acquisition of human capital, and the role of strategic public policy for the Turkish economy within the context of a general equilibrium model. The model aims to investigate the public policies toward fostering the development of human capital (such as investments in education and learning) and those at enhancing total factor productivity through investments in physical capital and innovation (such as subsidies to R&D), and to study the impact of various public policies on patterns of growth, along with their likely consequences from the points of view of capital accumulation, income distribution, social welfare and economic efficiency for the Turkish economy. With the aid of the model, we seek for analytical answers to the following question: for a government constrained with its budgetary requirements, which type of public subsidiziation policies is more conducive for enhancing growth and social welfare: promotion of human capital formation through subsidies to education expenditures, or promotion of new R&D formation through subsidies to R&D investment expenditures? According to the model findings, a single-handed strategy of only subsidizing education expenditures to promote human capital formation falls short of achieving desirable growth performance in the medium to long run. Under the policy of human capital formation promotion, expected growth and welfare results are weak in the medium-to-long run unless increased human capital can upgrade the number of research personnel employed in the R&D development sector. Under these observations, it can be argued that the public policy should be directed to R&D promotion in the medium-to-long run to complement an education promotion program to sustain human capital formation.Item Restricted Bir başarı öyküsü: Özdoğan Grup(Bilkent University, 2020) Ataş, Anıl; Tögel, Elanur; Sarıdoğan, Ataberk; Abanoz, İdil; Akşin, DursuncanBu projede genel olarak, Türkiye’de inşaat, sigorta, enerji, proje ve turizm sektörleri üzerine başarılı birçok çalışmaya imza atmış Özdoğan Grup’un ve bağlamında Özdoğan ailesinin tarihçesi ile birlikte belirtilen sektörlere yaptığı katkılar araştırılmıştır. Özdoğan Grup Yönetim Kurulu Başkanı Zeynel Özdoğan’ın hayatı incelenmiş, ilk yılları ve iş hayatına atılma süreci araştırılmıştır. Bununla ilgili olarak, şirketin kuruluş yıllarını ele alan makaleler, gazete haberleri, broşürler ve diğer kaynaklar incelenmiş ve tartışılmıştır. Yukarıda belirtilen sektörler ve Özdoğan ailesinin tarihçesi ile ilgili olarak şirketin kurucularından olan Hüseyin Özdoğan ve oğlu Müslüm Özdoğan ile bu bağlamda röportaj yapılmış, dönemin ekonomik koşulları göz önünde bulundurularak Özdoğan Grup genel olarak ele alınmıştır. Bununla birlikte, bu çalışmada temel olarak Özdoğan Grup’un kuruluş yılları ele alınarak dönemin Türkiye’sinin ekonomik hayatına etkileri ve katkıları araştırılırken aynı zamanda aile şirketi kavramının ne anlama geldiği ve Türkiye ekonomisi için önemi, başta Özdoğan Grup ve Özdoğan ailesi ele alınarak araştırılmış ve incelenmiştir.Item Open Access Cari açık, bütçe dengesi, finansal istikrar ve para politikası: Heyecanlı bir dönemin izi(Bilgesel Yayıncılık San. ve Tic. Ltd., 2012-06-01) Akkaya, Y.; Gürkaynak, R. S.2001 krizi Türkiye iktisat tarihinde önemli bir milattır. Bu makalede kriz sonrası dönemi 2002-2006 ve 2007-2012 alt dönemlerinde inceliyoruz. 2002-2006 güçlü bir stabilizasyon programının başarıyla uygulandığı, ekonominin normalleştiği bir dönemdir. Daha yakın döneme ilişkin başlıca hususlar ise (i) 2006 sonundan beri genel bir iktisat politikası boşluğu olduğu, (ii) cari açığın düzey olarak çok yüksek bir platoya yerleştiği ve bunun artık eskisi gibi bütçe açığı tarafından sürüklenmediği, (iii) ekonominin karşılaştığı yeni risk ve sorunlar eskilerinden farklı olduğu için kurumsal yapının bunlara karşılık vermekte zorlandığı, (iv) bu nedenle toplam kredi büyümesi, cari açık ve bunun finansmanı gibi konuların sahipsiz kaldıkları ve aslında bunlardan sorumlu olmayan Merkez Bankası’nca sahiplenildikleri ve (v) elinde bu sorunlar ile baş etmek için uygun araçlar olmayan Merkez Bankası’nın bu çabasının kurumsal olarak MB için ve bir bütün olarak Türkiye ekonomisi için önemli maliyetler doğurduğudur. Makalede birçok değişik bağlamda vurgulanan husus herhangi bir amacın vazife olarak verildiği kurumun o amaca ulaşmak için gereken araçları haiz kurum olması gerektiğidir.Item Restricted Devlet Bakanı Işın Çelebi’nin anıları(Bilkent University, 2016) Eryılmaz, Nurperi; Kaya, Neris; Dağı, Tunahan; Bülbül, Aybars; Meydanlı, KayraSekizinci cumhurbaşkanı Turgut Özal’ın döneminde ve 1980’li yılların sonunda alınan ekonomik kararlar, Türk ekonomisinde köklü değişimler yapmış ve yeni yollar açmış kabul edilir. Bu dönemde Türk ekonomisini dış ticarete açmak, özel sektörü güçlendirmek ve teşvik etmek, uluslararası ihracatı artırmak amacıyla çeşitli kararlar ve aksiyonlar alınmıştır. Işın Çelebi, Türkiye ekonomisinin değişime uğradığı bu dönemde ekonomi bakanlığı yapmış ve bu kararların alınmasında temel aktör olmuştur. Işın Çelebi, bunun dışında ANAP Milletvekilliği ve DPT İktisadi Planlama Dairesi Uzmanı olarak kamuda idame ettirdiği görevlerinin yanında MEPAŞ’taki genel müdürlük göreviyle özel sektörle de iç içe olma fırsatını yakalamıştır. Türkiye’de 1980’li yılların sonlarının ekonomisini kapsamlı bir şekilde anlamak için Işın Çelebi’nin anıları ve yazdıkları büyük bir önem taşımaktadır. Bu araştırmada, Işın Çelebi’nin özel hayatını ve dönemin ekonomik süreçlerini ve yaşadıkları olayları anlattığı kendi kitabından, kendisiyle gerçekleştirdiğimiz röportajdan ve dönemin ekonomisini anlatan belgesel ve dergilerden faydalanarak Işın Çelebi’nin anıları ve Türkiye’nin geçirdiği ekonomik değişimler anlatılmıştır.Item Open Access Economic aspects of the accession of Turkey to the EU(Springer, 2004) Togan, S.The conditional offer to negotiate with Turkey, a large Muslim nation, on EU membership is stirring political debate in Europe, a debate that can be very useful or extraordinarily dangerous depending on how it is managed. The purpose of this note is to contribute to this debate by highlighting the economic aspects of Turkish accession. We start with the analysis of the impact of EU accession on the Turkish economy. We then study the impact of Turkish accession on the economy of the EU, and end with some concluding remarks.Item Open Access How did export-led growth strategy work in the Turkish case? The experience of manufacturing sector after 1980(The Undersecretariat of the Prime Ministry of Foreign Trade, 2008) Kızılca, F. K.; Özcan, K. M.The plan of the paper is as follows: Section II summarizes the phases of external orientation of the Turkish economy and the developments in Turkish economy after 1980. Section III summarizes the literature review on wages and mark-ups during trade liberalization. Section IV draws attention to some stylized facts of the Turkish manufacturing sectors. Section V provides the econometric analysis and summarizes the results. Finally Section VI concludes.Item Open Access On the IMF-directed disinflation program in Turkey: a program for stabilization and Austerity or a Recipe for impoverishment and financial chaos?(Nova Science, 2002) Yeldan, Alp Erinç; Balkan, Neşecan; Savran, S.In December 1999, Turkey adopted a comprehensive disinflation program, aiming at decreasing the inflation rate to a single digit by the end of 2002. Aided with the supervision and technical support of the IMF, the new program relied on exchange rate based disinflation and monetary control by setting upper limits to net domestic asset position of the Central Bank (CB). The program further entailed a series of austerity measures on fiscal expenditures and set specific targets for the balance on non-interest, primary budget. Yet, just eleven months after launching the disinflation program Turkey experienced a severe financial crisis in November 2001 and then again in February 2001. In this paper I attempt to evaluate the theoretical foundations of the disinflation program and highlight its structural weakness in light of the international stabilization experiences. In so doing I also highlight the role of the IMF in the emancipation of the financial crisis.Item Open Access Opening up the Turkish economy in the context of the customs union with EU(Center for International Economics, 1997) Togan, S.The paper consider the Turkey-EU customs union (CU). After reviewing briefly the developments in Turkey-EU relations the paper studies the structure of protection that prevailed prior to the formation of the CU as well as structure of protection that will prevail when all of the adjustments required by the CU will be completed. The resource allocation effects of the CU are studied using nominal and effective protection rates. Besides the liberalization of trade the CU introduces new rules and disciplines that will effect the functioning of markets in Turkey. With the formation of CU Turkey is confronted with reductions in annual tax revenue. The paper studies the possible effects of tax revenue losses as well as the effects of the CU on FDI in-flows.Item Open Access Optimal univariate expectations under high and persistent inflation: new evidence from Turkey(Elsevier BV, 2005) Us, V.; Ozcan, K. M.The poor performance of sticky-price models with rational expectations in explaining the inflationary inertia in the US economy constitutes the basis for sticky-price models of near-rational expectations in the recent literature. However, previous studies on inflationary inertia in Turkey not only lack a model of nominal stickiness but also do not try to explain inflation persistence by expectations. Even though, there exists evidence for persistent inflation in Turkey as confirmed by earlier studies, and other studies provide evidence that expectations are neither perfectly rational nor purely adaptive, there is no attempt to link this near-rational behavior to inflationary inertia. Given this gap, this paper, therefore, tests empirically a sticky-price model under the assumption of near-rational expectations on two different inflation episodes in the Turkish economy. The near-rational expectations as described by optimal univariate expectations where agents use information on past inflation optimally while data on other variables are ignored, not only fit the data for both periods but also are not subject to Lucas critique. Alternatively, near-rational expectations are assumed to be backward looking. This alternative scenario shows that optimal univariate expectations perform even better during relatively higher inflation periods. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Item Open Access Overnight borrowing, interest rates and extreme value theory(Elsevier BV, 2006) Gençay, R.; Selçuk, F.We examine the dynamics of extreme values of overnight borrowing rates in an inter-bank money market before a financial crisis during which overnight borrowing rates rocketed up to (simple annual) 4000 percent. It is shown that the generalized Pareto distribution fits well to the extreme values of the interest rate distribution. We also provide predictions of extreme overnight borrowing rates using pre-crisis data. The examination of tails (extreme values) provides answers to such issues as to what are the extreme movements to be expected in financial markets; is there a possibility for even larger movements and, are there theoretical processes that can model the type of fat-tails in the observed data? The answers to such questions are essential for proper management of financial exposures and laying ground for regulations. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Item Open Access Sources of growth and the output gap for the Turkish economy(Emerald Group Publishing, 2006) Özcan, Kıvılcım M.; Özlale, Ümit; Sarıkaya, Ç.; Nugent, J. B.; Pesaran, M. H.In this study, we analyze the growth dynamics of the Turkish economy. After investigating the sources of growth and comparing both the output and the inflation performance with the other MENA countries, we find that the Turkish economy has not achieved a sustainable growth path and has a much worse inflation performance. Then, we take a closer look at the volatile output performance and discuss the role of the wrong macroeconomic policies on the unsustainable output performance. Utilizing an output gap measure, we find that the short-term capital flows seem to be the main driving force in generating excessive fluctuations in the output. Based on these findings, we can say that the high economic growth rates, which the Turkish economy has achieved in the recent years owe much to massive short-term capital inflows. At this stage, it is too early to evaluate the effects of the recent structural reforms on the long-term output dynamics.Item Open Access Structural change in agriculture and water requirements in Turkey(Emerald Publishing Limited, 2003) Sayan, S.; Demir, N.This paper investigates the effects of the post-1980 structural reforms in Turkey on the strength of inter-industry linkages between agricultural and non-agricultural sectors, and discusses the implications of the changing strength of these linkages for water consumption by the Turkish economy as a whole. For this purpose, we first solve demand- and supply-side input output models under alternative scenarios concerning the nature of linkages between agricultural and non-agricultural sectors in 1979 and 1990. We then calculate the direct and indirect water requirements of production in 32 sectors and estimate the amount of water embodied in agricultural and manufacturing exports of Turkey.Item Open Access Three essays on inflation and monetary policy in Turkey(Bilkent University, 2003) Us, VuslatThis dissertation analyzes three studies on inflation dynamics and monetary policy alternatives in Turkey. In the first article, inflation inertia is analyzed. To this aim, expectations are assumed to be formed optimal univariate in a staggared contracts model setting,. An alternative assumption, which then would be subject to Lucas critique, is that expectations are naive. Consequently, the analysis favors the first alternative to the latter one in explaining high and persistent inflation. In the second study, the degree of currency substitution is analyzed by using various definitions. More specifically, ratchet effect in currency substitution is studied by Autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) procedure. The statistical evidence suggests that even though currency substitution has been persistent at an increasing degree, the economy at large has not been irreversibly dollarized yet. The final study of this dissertation discusses monetary transmission mechanism in a small structural model setting. In this framework, using various simulations the implementation of a standard Taylor Rule is analyzed. The alternative proposal is the use a monetary conditions index as a policy rule. The results show that the second alternative is preferable since the economy is then exposed to lessened volatility.