Browsing by Subject "Markov model"

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    Analysis of design parameters in SIL-4 safety-critical computer
    (IEEE, 2017-01) Ahangari, Hamzeh; Özkök, Y. I.; Yıldırım, A.; Say, F.; Atik, Funda; Öztürk, Özcan
    Nowadays, Safety-critical computers are extensively used in may civil domains like transportation including railways, avionics and automotive. We noticed that in design of some previous works, some critical safety design parameters like failure diagnostic coverage (DC) or common cause failure (CCF) ratio have not been seriously taken into account. Moreover, in some cases safety has not been compared with standard safety levels (IEC-61508 SIL1-SIL4) or even have not met them. Most often, it is not very clear that which part of the system is the Achilles' heel and how design can be improved to reach standard safety levels. Motivated by such design ambiguities, we aim to study the effect of various design parameters on safety in some prevalent safety configurations: 1oo2 and 2oo3. 1oo1 is also used as a reference. By employing Markov modeling, sensitivity of safety to each of the following critical design parameters is analyzed: failure rate of processing element, failure diagnostics coverage, common cause failures and repair rates. This study gives a deeper sense regarding influence of variation in design parameters over safety. Consequently, to meet appropriate safety integrity level, instead of improving some system parts blindly, it will be possible to make an informed decision on more relevant parameters. © 2017 IEEE.
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    Computational methods for risk-averse undiscounted transient markov models
    (Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (I N F O R M S), 2014) Çavuş, O.; Ruszczyński, A.
    The total cost problem for discrete-time controlled transient Markov models is considered. The objective functional is a Markov dynamic risk measure of the total cost. Two solution methods, value and policy iteration, are proposed, and their convergence is analyzed. In the policy iteration method, we propose two algorithms for policy evaluation: the nonsmooth Newton method and convex programming, and we prove their convergence. The results are illustrated on a credit limit control problem.
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    Cost-effectiveness of adjuvant FOLFOX and 5FU/LV chemotherapy for patients with stage II colon cancer
    (2013) Ayvaci, M.U.S.; Shi J.; Alagoz O.; Lubner, S.J.
    Purpose. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of adjuvant chemotherapy using 5-fluorouracil, leucovorin (5FU/LV), and oxaliplatin (FOLFOX) compared with 5FU/LV alone and 5FU/LV compared with observation alone for patients who had resected stage II colon cancer. Methods. We developed 2 Markov models to represent the adjuvant chemotherapy and follow-up periods and a single Markov model to represent the observation group. We used calibration to estimate the transition probabilities among different toxicity levels. The base case considered 60-year-old patients who had undergone an uncomplicated hemicolectomy for stage II colon cancer and were medically fit to receive 6 months of adjuvant chemotherapy. We measured health outcomes in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and estimated costs using 2007 US dollars. Results. In the base case, adjuvant chemotherapy of the FOLFOX regimen had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $54,359/QALY compared with the 5FU/LV regimen, and the 5FU/LV regimen had an ICER of $14,584/QALY compared with the observation group from the third-party payer perspective. The ICER values were most sensitive to 5-year relapse probability, cost of adjuvant chemotherapy, and the discount rate for the FOLFOX arm, whereas the ICER value of 5FU/LV was most sensitive to the 5-year relapse probability, 5-year survival probability, and the relapse cost. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicates that the ICER of 5FU/LV is less than $50,000/QALY with a probability of 99.62%, and the ICER of FOLFOX as compared with 5FU/LV is less than $50,000/QALY and $100,000/QALY with a probability of 44.48% and 97.24%, respectively. Conclusion. Although adjuvant chemotherapy with 5FU/LV is cost-effective at all ages for patients who have undergone an uncomplicated hemicolectomy for stage II colon cancer, FOLFOX is not likely to be cost-effective as compared with 5FU/LV.
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    Diferansiyel PIR algılayıcılarla dalgacık tabanlı alev tespiti
    (IEEE, 2012-04) Erden, F.; Töreyin, B. U.; Soyer, E. B.; İnaç, İ.; Günay, O.; Köse, K.; Çetin, A. Enis
    Bu makalede, diferansiyel kızılberisi algılayıcı (PIR) kullanılarak geliştirilen bir alev tespit sistemi önerilmektedir. Diferansiyel kızılberisi algılayıcılar, yalnızca görüş alanlarındaki ani sıcaklık değişikliklerine duyarlıdır ve zamanla değişen sinyaller üretir. Algılayıcı sinyaline ait dalgacık dönüşümü, öznitelik çıkarmak için kullanılır ve bu öznitelik vektörü hızlı titreşen kontrolsüz bir ateşin alevi ve bir kişinin yürümesi olaylarıyla eğitilmiş Markov modellerine sokulur. En yüksek olasılıkla sonuçlanan modele karar verilir. Karşılaştırmalı sonuçlar, sistemin geniş odalarda ateş tespiti için kullanılabileceğini düşündürmektedir.
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    A robust system for counting people using an infrared sensor and a camera
    (Elsevier BV, 2015) Erden, F.; Alkar, A. Z.; Çetin, A. Enis
    In this paper, a multi-modal solution to the people counting problem in a given area is described. The multi-modal system consists of a differential pyro-electric infrared (PIR) sensor and a camera. Faces in the surveillance area are detected by the camera with the aim of counting people using cascaded AdaBoost classifiers. Due to the imprecise results produced by the camera-only system, an additional differential PIR sensor is integrated to the camera. Two types of human motion: (i) entry to and exit from the surveillance area and (ii) ordinary activities in that area are distinguished by the PIR sensor using a Markovian decision algorithm. The wavelet transform of the continuous-time real-valued signal received from the PIR sensor circuit is used for feature extraction from the sensor signal. Wavelet parameters are then fed to a set of Markov models representing the two motion classes. The affiliation of a test signal is decided as the class of the model yielding higher probability. People counting results produced by the camera are then corrected by utilizing the additional information obtained from the PIR sensor signal analysis. With the proof of concept built, it is shown that the multi-modal system can reduce false alarms of the camera-only system and determines the number of people watching a TV set in a more robust manner.
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    VOC gas leak detection using pyro-electric infrared sensors
    (IEEE, 2010) Erden, Fatih; Soyer, E. B.; Toreyin, B. U.; Çetin, A. Enis
    In this paper, we propose a novel method for detecting and monitoring Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) gas leaks by using a Pyro-electric (or Passive) Infrared (PIR) sensor whose spectral range intersects with the absorption bands of VOC gases. A continuous time analog signal is obtained from the PIR sensor. This signal is discretized and analyzed in real time. Feature parameters are extracted in wavelet domain and classified using a Markov Model (MM) based classifier. Experimental results are presented. ©2010 IEEE.