Browsing by Subject "Macroeconomics."
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Item Open Access Essays on applied macroeconomics(Bilkent University, 2005) İnce, OnurThis study contains three studies, the relationship between FED intervention and emerging markets, the effect of S&P500 return on Istanbul Stock Exchange and the connection between Turkish industrial production growth and the success of Beşiktaş. The second chapter analyzes the effect of FED intervention on emerging markets with using event-study analysis. Considering Emerging Market Bond Index (EMBI) and grouping the effect under five different categories, the effect of FED intervention on emerging markets are shown. The third chapter assesses the effect of S&P500 return on the Istanbul Stock Exchange within a dynamic framework. In order to capture the effect, we build a block recursive VAR model allowing that S&P500 affects the ISE returns with its current and lag values but not vice versa. The estimates from daily data suggest that returns on S&P500 affect ISE return positively up to 4 days. The fourth chapter investigates the connection between Turkish industrial production growth and the success of Beşiktaş, which is a popular Turkish soccer team. The empirical evidence provided in the paper suggests that industrial production growth tends to increase with the success of Beşiktaş in European cups. Moreover, if the winnings are in displacement, the increase in industrial production is higher than if the winnings are in the home field. On the other hand, findings on the effects of domestic games on industrial performance are not statistically significant.Item Open Access A supply side limited participation model of monetary transmission mechanism(Bilkent University, 2001) Karaca, ZeynalThis thesis is a theoretical investigation of how money growth affects output, employment, consumption and real wages from a supply side channel. We analyze the effects of monetary shocks under deterministic and stochastic environments in a limited participation model with competitive and sticky wages. We find that anticipated money growth decreases output, employment, consumption, working capital and real wages, but increases profitability of the firms. Unanticipated money growth under sticky wages increases employment, output and consumption, decreases price and profits. The main contribution of this thesis to the literature is that when sticky nominal wages are included in a limited participation model with inelastic labor supply stylized business cycle facts can be obtainedItem Open Access A thesis on exchange rates, fundamentals and trade(Bilkent University, 2014) Doğanay, Seda MeyveciThis dissertation is made up of three essays on understanding the exchange rate movements and the link between the exchange rate and the real economy. In the first essay, exchange rate movements are decomposed into two components that are driven by the observable fundamentals and the unobservable factors in the economy with different statistical methods. Then, these methods results are compared in a reduce form equation in a panel setting that enables us to understand the economic sense behind these decomposition techniques. From this analysis, Christiano and Fitzgerald Filter (C-F Filter) (2003) is selected as the method that decomposes real exchange rate into permanent and temporary components which are respectively components that capture the fundamentals and unobservables. In the second essay the Meese and Rogoff puzzle is analyzed through testing the scapegoat theory of exchange rate. Scapegoat theory of exchange rate claims that when exchange rate changes due to an unobserved factor, to rationalize this movement, agents give more weight to a fundamental that reveals a large variation from its mean which creates an exchange rate movement in the expected direction. This part presents an empirical test of the scapegoat theory of exchange rate using Turkish data. It is found that there exists a strong and robust empirical support for the scapegoat theory of exchange rate. Of all the fundamentals, between 2003-2013 market participants have viewed the current account as the scapegoat; the current account variable and its scapegoat incidences have the statistically significant and theoretically expected effect on nominal spot exchange rate return. Finally in the last essay making use of the decomposed exchange rate series the impact of exchange rate on bilateral trade flows is empirically analyzed using the Gravity Model in a panel setting. The estimation is done for using aggregate bilateral trade data. From this analysis we conclude that the impact of currency depreciation on trade flows depends on whether that change in the exchange rate reflects a shift in trend or is just a transitory movement.Item Open Access A time series analysis of the Japanese yen with monthly data(Bilkent University, 1996) Eltaş, MetinThe purpose of this thesis is to obtain a function which will help in using the exchange rate between the Japanese Yen (Yen) and the United States Dollar (Dollar) as an investment alternative. A three-step method is followed throughout this study. Yen and the set of five countries' exchange and interest rates is searched at the first step. Mullticolinearity and nonstationarity problems are observed at this stage. At the second step the data set is converted into a stationary form by taking the first differences. Then regression is applied and no significant correlation is found. At the final step relation between Yen and three subgroups from the data set are examined and no significant relation is found again. This thesis concludes by explaining the outcomes of our analyses.Item Open Access Two essays on dynamic macroeconomics(Bilkent University, 2001) Taşçı, HakanFirst chapter of this research assesses the stability of the money-income relationship for seven OECD countries by using the data from 1960’s to 2000’s. The short run relationships between monetary policy and output have strong evidences. When the sample was split into two sub samples: pre and post 1980, the empirical evidence presented in this research shows that even if the inferences gathered across countries are not always parallel, the inferences gathered from the VAR specification across the samples for each country are mostly parallel. In this article secondly, by using the 1990 input-output table, the inflationary effects of crude oil prices are investigated for Turkey. Under fixed nominal wages, profits, interest and rent earnings, the effect of increasing prices of oil on inflation is limited. However, when wages and the other three factors of income (profit, interest and rent) are adjusted to the general price level that includes the oil price increases, then the inflationary effect of oil prices becomes significant. Hence, indexation could have very severe effects on an economy when oil prices increase.Item Open Access Two essays on macroeconomics(Bilkent University, 2003) Doğan, BurakThe empirical evidence suggests that openness decreases the effect of monetary policy on output; however the effect on prices is not statistically significant. In the first chapter of this research these predictions are tested over the open economy of Turkey for quarterly data from 1987:1 to 2001:1. This chapter assesses how the openness affects the effectiveness of monetary policy on output and prices. The purpose of the second chapter is to assess if expansionary and contractionary government spending shocks have an asymmetric effect for Turkish economy. There might be asymmetry for the effect of fiscal policy on economic outcome due to stickiness of prices, perception of changes (permanent versus transitory) and nearness to full employment. This chapter assesses this asymmetry for Turkey by using quarterly data from 1987:I to 2001:I. The empirical evidence reported here reveals that private consumption and investment decrease in the face of expansionary government spending shocks; however, they either do not change or decrease very little under contractionary government spending shocks.