Browsing by Subject "Energy market"
Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
Results Per Page
Sort Options
Item Open Access Bidding structure, market efficiency and persistence in a multi-time tariff setting(Elsevier, 2016) Avci-Surucu, E.; Aydogan, A. K.; Akgul, D.The purpose of this study is to examine the fractal dynamics of day ahead electricity prices by using parametric and semi parametric approaches for each time zone in a multi-time tariff setting in the framework of bidding strategies, market efficiency and persistence of exogenous shocks. We find that that electricity prices have long term correlation structure for the first and third time zones indicating that market participants bid hyperbolically and not at their marginal costs, market is not weak form efficient at these hours and exogenous shocks to change the mean level of prices will have permanent effect and be effective. On the other hand, for the second time zone we find that price series does not exhibit long term memory. This finding suggests the weak form efficiency of the market in these hours and that market participants bid at their marginal costs. Furthermore this indicates that exogenous shocks will have temporary effect on electricity prices in these hours. These findings constitute an important foundation for policy makers and market participants to develop appropriate electricity price forecasting tools, market monitoring indexes and to conduct ex-ante impact assessment.Item Open Access The Iraq war, Turkey, and renewed caspian energy prospects(Middle East Institute, 2008) Williams, P. A.; Tekin, A.Many have linked the US-led invasion of Iraq to its oil resources, leading some observers to question Caspian energy prospects. This article analyzes how the Iraqi occupation and Caspian oil prospects have been inter-linked, via the evolution of American and Turkish assessments of Iraq and the Caspian region. It shows that, contrary to initial expectations, the occupation of Iraq bolstered the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan project as well as a number of other increasingly significant natural gas export pipelines.Item Open Access Market cycles, power politics and the latest North – South energy trade conflict(Routledge, 2007) Williams, P. A.Energy trade periodically aligns Northern importing - consuming countries against predominantly Southern producing - exporting countries. Conflict appears to follow a cyclical pattern, whereby Northern firms invest in developing Third World hydrocarbon resources to meet consumer demand until market conditions enable unilateral efforts by host sovereigns to augment fiscal take and ownership share and to impose output restrictions, thereby elevating prices and revenues. Although markets eventually correct themselves, major consuming-country governments, to the extent that seller's markets attributable to exporter actions harm short-term consumer welfare and alternative options for restoring buyer's markets are lacking, have varying incentives to support military intervention. Shifting market conditions and power balances suggest six ideal-typical energy trade conflict strategies. Finally, to the extent that exporting states succeed in converting higher hydrocarbon revenues into energy-intensive economic growth, co-operative phases within this conflict pattern could yield to increasingly zero-sum inter-consumer rivalry.