Browsing by Author "Druckman, D."

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Open Access
Identification of a princess under incomplete information: an amarna story
(Springer New York LLC, 2000-06) Güner, S.; Druckman, D.
This article presents four analyses of an interaction between the middle-Bronze Age Pharaoh Nibmuarea and the Babylonian king Kadashman-Enlil as described in the Amarna letters (Moran [1992] The Amarna Letters, The Johns Hopkins Universiy Press, Baltimore, Maryland). Intent on denying the Pharaoh his daughter in marriage, the Babylonian king was faced with the choice of sending messengers who could (''dignitaries'') or could not identify (''non-dignitaries'') his missing sister in the Pharaoh's court. Intent on marrying the king's daughter, the Pharaoh was faced with the choice of showing the sister or showing someone else. Based on the assumption of complete information (game 1), the analysis revealed a dominant-strategy equilibrium: Nibmuarea shows the sister and Kadashman-Enlil sends non-dignitaries. Based on the assumption of one-sided incomplete information (Pharaoh's misperception; game 2), the analysis revealed that the Pharaoh had a dominant strategy of showing the sister irrespective of whether the king is keen or reluctant to learn about his sister's fate. Based on the assumption of one-sided incomplete information (Kadashman-Enlil's misperception; game 3), the analysis revealed that if non-dignitaries are sent, the Pharaoh prefers showing someone other than his sister. Based on the assumption of two-sided incomplete information (game 4), the Pharaoh finds it more beneficial to present the sister irrespective of whether his intentions are genuine or feigned. With incomplete information, it is difficult to judge the other's intentions; the cost of being caught cheating by not showing the sister to knowledgeable messengers was quite high. These analyses highlight the strategic uncertainty that characterized this Bronze-Age interaction.
Open Access
Let the people speak! What kind of civil society inclusion leads to durable peace?
(Oxford University Press, 2023-08-21) Çuhadar, Esra; Druckman, D.
In this article, building on the earlier research on procedural justice (PJ) and civil society inclusion, we assess the effectiveness of various civil society inclusion modalities based on their impact on durable peace (DP). A set of hypotheses concerning civil society inclusion is evaluated using the fifty-case peace agreement dataset assembled by Druckman and Wagner (2019). Their study showed that PJ was a key predictor of DP. We take their model as the base and add inclusion variables step by step using a hierarchical regression model. Results show that inclusive commissions (ICs) add significant explained variance to the prediction of DP. None of the other modalities add significant variance to the prediction. A possible explanation is that ICs ensure the continuation of civil society inclusion between the negotiation and implementation phases of a peace process. As well, they optimize breadth and depth in an inclusive negotiation process. The article concludes with discussions of next steps in the research and develops implications for policy makers. En este artículo analizamos, partiendo de la base de la investigación anterior en materia se justicia procesal e inclusión en la sociedad civil, la efectividad de varias modalidades de inclusión en la sociedad civil en función de su impacto sobre la paz duradera. Llevamos a cabo una evaluación de un conjunto de hipótesis relativas a la inclusión en la sociedad civil utilizando el conjunto de datos de acuerdos de paz procedente de cincuenta casos, que fueron reunidos por Druckman y Wagner (2019). Su estudio mostró que la justicia procesal resultaba un predictor clave de la paz duradera. Tomamos este modelo como base y agregamos variables de inclusión paso a paso utilizando un modelo de regresión jerárquica. Los resultados muestran que las comisiones inclusivas añaden una varianza explicada significativa a la predicción de la paz duradera obtenida. Ninguna de las otras modalidades añade una varianza significativa a la predicción. Una posible explicación para esto es que las comisiones inclusivas aseguran la continuación de la inclusión en la sociedad civil entre las fases de negociación e implementación que tienen lugar en un proceso de paz. Además, optimizan la amplitud y la profundidad dentro de un proceso de negociación inclusivo. El artículo concluye con unos debates sobre los próximos pasos que deben llevarse a cabo en el ámbito de la investigación y desarrolla las implicaciones que todo esto tendría para los responsables políticos. Dans cet article, en nous fondant sur les recherches antérieures sur la justice procédurale et l'inclusion de la société civile, nous évaluons l'efficacité de différentes modalités d'inclusion de la société civile en fonction de leur effet sur la paix durable (PD). Un groupe d'hypothèses concernant l'inclusion de la société civile est évalué à l'aide d'un ensemble de données sur les accords de paix regroupant cinquante affaires et assemblé par Druckman et Wagner (2019). Leur étude a montré que la justice procédurale (JP) constituait un indicateur clé de PD. Nous prenons leur modèle comme base et nous y ajoutons des variables d'inclusion étape par étape à l'aide d'un modèle de régression hiérarchique (MRH). Les résultats montrent que les commissions plurielles (CP) introduisent et expliquent une importante différence dans la prédiction de PD. Aucune des autres modalités n'ajoute d'importantes différences dans la prédiction. Une explication possible serait que les CP garantissent le prolongement de l'inclusion de la société civile entre les phases de négociation et d'application du processus de paix. De plus, elles favorisent l'ouverture et la profondeur du processus de négociation inclusif. L'article se conclut en abordant les prochaines étapes de recherche et formule des implications pour les législateurs.
Open Access
Representative decision making : constituency constraints on collective action
(Springer New York, 2011) Druckman, D.; Çuhadar, E.; Beriker, N.; Çelik, B.
This chapter focuses on the role of group and national identity in various types of collective actions. It features the decision to take action and asks about factors that influence that decision. Thus, our perspective is from the standpoint of the decision-maker who usually represents a collectivity (group, organization, nation). The interest is less about those decision-makers' own identities and attachments than about various drivers and constraints on their decisions to act. © 2011 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.
Open Access
Representative decision-making: challenges to democratic peace theory
(Springer, 2015) Çuhadar, Esra; Druckman, D.; Galluccio, M.
An attempt is made in this chapter to evaluate hypotheses derived from democratic peace theory. The key tenet of this theory is that democratic nations do not go to war with other democracies. Thus, regime type drives decisions to pursue war. The research to date has focused attention on regime type. This study expands this focus by examining the influences of a variety of variables on decisions made by role players to mobilize for war. In addition to own and other’s regime type, we include motivational, readiness, and identity variables. Further, the study examines two types of decisions: response to threats of violence and response to a humanitarian crisis in another country. The results show that the other’s regime motivates decisions to go to war when that nation is autocratic. However, that decision is contingent on the severity of the threat and the spread of public support for the action. The other’s regime type is not a source of decisions to act in humanitarian crises. The key factor in that situation is spread of support for the action. Interestingly, one’s own regime type (democracy) is the most important influence on both types of decisions when the other nation is democratic. These findings expand and refine democratic peace theory as well as provide a basis for further research.
Open Access
Simulating the Lausanne Peace negotiations 1922-1923: power asymmetries in bargaining
(Sage, 1996) Beriker, N.; Druckman, D.
The negotiation leading to the historic Lausanne Peace Treaty provides a setting for exploring the impacts of different power configurations on bargaining behavior. Symmetric and asymmetric coalition structures existed on two key issues in the talks, passage through the straits and the question of civil rights for minorities. A content analysis of the transcripts showed some differences in bargaining behavior between the two power structures. These structures were simulated and compared to a third condition, bilateral negotiations between parties of equal power Opposing negotiators in the symmetric parties condition were more satisfied with the outcome, achieved faster resolutions, disagreed less, and made fewer competitive statements during the discussions than negotiators from these countries in the coalition conditions. Both similarities and differences were found in the comparison between the processes and outcomes in the actual and simulated negotiations. The results have implications for designing structures that improve negotiations and illustrate some advantages of experimental simulation. © 1996 Sage Publications, Inc.
Open Access
A Social-Psychological analysis of amarna diplomacy
(Johns Hopkins University Press, 2000) Druckman, D.; Güner, Serdar; Cohen, R.; Westbrook, R.
Open Access
Tushratta’s requests to the pharaohs
(Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2003) Güner, Serdar; Druckman, D.; Faure, G. O.
The Amarna letters (1400–1350 B.C.) demonstrate that intricate balance-of-power politics was familiar to Middle Eastern rulers millennia ago (Moran, 1992). Egyptians, Hittites, Mittanians, Babylonians, Assyrians, and leaders of lesser kingdoms formed alliances on the basis of “brotherhood” or, in equivalent terms, on the basis of equality. The equality between the rulers was established primarily by demands and offers of princesses. For example, the Mittani rulers Artatama, Artatama’s son Shutarna, and Shutarna’s son Tushratta gave daughters to the pharaohs Thutmose IV and Amenophis III, sending and receiving bride prices. However, overshadowing an apparent equality was the reality that Egypt was the hegemon in the Middle Bronze Age.