Browsing by Author "Deviren, M. N."

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    Investigation of ionospheric precursors of 23 October 2011 Mw=7.2 earthquake in Van, Turkey
    (EGU, 2012-04) Deviren, M. N.; Arıkan, F.; Sezen, U.; Arıkan, Orhan
    In recent years, a strong coupling between ionospheric disturbances and seismic activity has been observed through the increase of ion temperatures, critical frequencies of ionospheric layers and Total Electron Content (TEC) before high magnitude earthquakes. TEC is defined as total number of electrons over a ray path through the ionosphere. TEC can be estimated in a cost-effective way with dual-frequency Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) System receivers. The unit of TEC is given by TECU where 1 TECU = 1016 el/m2. In this study, the disturbances in daily TEC values before 23 October 2011, Mw=7.2 Earthquake in Van, Turkey are investigated using Turkish National Permanent GPS Network (TNPGN-Active). Earthquake Day Period (EDP) is chosen between October 1 and 31, 2011. Daily TEC values, for each station and each day, are estimated as IONOLAB-TEC (www.ionolab.org) with 30 s time resolution. EDP-TEC values are compared with an Average Quiet Day TEC (AQDT) which is obtained by averaging the TEC values between 25 and 28 March, 2011. Statistical comparison is accomplished using Symmetric Kullback-Leibler Divergence (SKLD), which is also a method for measuring entropy of a system. It has been previously observed that SKLD is a better method for measuring the amount of disturbances compared to L2 norm and cross-correlation coefficient. AQDT is also compared with magnetically Quiet Day Period (QDP) from 25 to 28 April, 2011, during which Kp and Dst indices indicate a very quiet ionospheric and magnetospheric period. Also, in order to measure the variability between the consecutive days, TEC values for each day during EDP and QDP are compared with the TEC values of the following day. A third measure of W-index is also applied to identify the local disturbances in the ionosphere, where TEC of a given day is compared to the median of seven days prior to the day of investigation logarithmically. Since W-index is obtained for each epoch, the within-the-day variability can also be monitored. It has been observed that peak TEC values for all stations in TNPGN increase 10 to 15 TECU two days prior to the earthquake. The SKLD values for comparison of EDP and AQDT also peak on 21st of October, 2011, two days prior to the earthquake. Since ionospheric disturbance can be observed on all days prior to the earthquake, comparison of TEC for consecutive days for each station using SKLD does not provide extra information. The W-index values indicate that there may be small scale variability for stations closer to the earthquake epicenter. When compared with previous earthquakes that occurred in Turkey with magnitudes 4.5 and 5.2 on Richter scale, this 7.2 magnitude earthquake has been felt as an ionospheric disturbance for stations especially on Northern Anatolian Fault. The results also indicate the need for constant monitoring and statistical decision theory for detection of earthquake precursors.
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    Investigation of ionospheric trend over Turkey using sliding window statistical analysis method
    (IEEE, 2013) Deviren, M. N.; Arikan, F.; Arıkan, Orhan
    In this paper, variability of trend over Turkey is investigated statistically by Sliding Window Statistical Analysis (SWSA) method. First and second moment of the variability of ionospheric trend is calculated by SWSA method in a period of several years. Variance bounds are also obtained. This method is applied to Total Electron Content (TEC) estimates which are obtained from Turkish National Permanent GPS Network (TNPGNActive) between 2009 and 2012. The Wide Sense Stationarity (WSS) period of ionospheric trend over Turkey is determined for the first time. © 2013 IEEE.
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    Investigation of short-period ionospheric variation over Turkey
    (IEEE, 2014) Deviren, M. N.; Arıkan, F.; Arıkan, Orhan
    In this paper, characteristic of short-period ionospheric variability over Turkey is determined statistically by a novel metric. First and second moment of the variability of ionospheric variations is calculated by Sliding Window Statistical Analysis (SWSA) method in 2011, and the ionospheric variations are investigated using this novel metric. Ionospheric storms will be characterized over Turkey and North Cyprus Turkish Republic between 2009 and 2013.
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    Investigation on the reliability of earthquake prediction based on ionospheric electron content variation
    (ISIF, 2013-07) Akyol, Ali Alp; Arıkan, Orhan; Arıkan F.; Deviren, M. N.
    Due to lack of statistical reliability analysis of earthquake precursors, earthquake prediction from ionospheric parameters is considered to be controversial. In this study, reliability of earthquake prediction is investigated using dense TEC data estimated from the Turkish National Permanent GPS Network (TNPGN- Active). © 2013 ISIF ( Intl Society of Information Fusi.
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    Ionolab grubunun iyonküre uzaktan algılama ve 2-b görüntüleme çalışmaları
    (IEEE, 2014-04) Arıkan, F.; Toker, C.; Sezen, U.; Deviren, M. N.; Çilibaş, O.; Arıkan, Orhan
    Bu çalışmada, IONOLAB grubunun son 10 yıldır iyonküre uzaktan algılaması ve 2-B görüntüleme çalışmaları özetlenecektir. TÜBİTAK EEEAG 105E171 ve 109E055 projelerinde, çift frekanslı Yerküresel Konumlama Sistemi (YKS) alıcılarının sözde menzil ve faz gecikmesi kayıtlarından özgün Toplam Elektron İçeriği (TEİ) kestirim yöntemi IONOLAB-TEC geliştirilmiştir. Önemli bir Uzay Havası hizmeti olarak www.ionolab.org sitesinden tüm araştırmacılara açılan IONOLAB-TEC, dünyada ilk ve tek gürbüz, güvenilir ve hassas tek istasyon için TEİ kestirimleri yapabilmektedir. Uzayda ve zamanda seyrek YKS-TEİ kestirimlerinin bölgesel ve yerküresel aradeğerlemesi için çalışmalar yapılmış ve Türkiye üzerindeki TUSAGA-Aktif istasyon ağından IONOLAB-TEC yöntemi ile elde edilen Toplam Elektron İçeriği (TEİ) kestirimleri kullanılarak otomatik yüksek çözünürlüklü 2-B TEİ görüntüleri elde edilmiştir. IRI-Plas iyonküre iklimsel modeli altyapısıyla literatürde ilk kez hızlı ve gürbüz elektron yoğunluğu dağılımları elde edilmiş ve iyonküre model parametreleri özgün aradeğerleme ile birleştirilmiştir. www.ionolab.org sitesinde iyonküre kritik frekans ve yükseklik haritaları sunulmaktadır. IONOLAB grubunun bu önemli katkıları TÜBİTAK EEEAG 112E568 projesi kapsamında devam etmektedir.
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    Spatio-temporal interpolation of total electron content using a GPS network
    (IEEE, 2013) Deviren, M. N.; Arıkan, F.; Arıkan, Orhan
    Constant monitoring and prediction of Space Weather events require investigation of the variability of total electron content (TEC), which is an observable feature of ionosphere using dual-frequency GPS receivers. Due to various physical and/or technical obstructions, the recordings of GPS receivers may be disrupted resulting in data loss in TEC estimates. Data recovery is very important for both filling in the data gaps for constant monitoring of ionosphere and also for spatial and/or temporal prediction of TEC. Spatial prediction can be obtained using the neighboring stations in a network of a dense grid. Temporal prediction recovers data using previous days of the GPS station in a less dense grid. In this study, two novel and robust spatio-temporal interpolation algorithms are introduced to recover TEC through optimization by using least squares fit to available data. The two algorithms are applied to a regional GPS network, and for a typical station, the number of days with full data increased from 68% to 85%.