Order timing for seasonal products with demand learning and capacity constraints

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buir.advisorŞen, Alper
dc.contributor.authorDemirci, Ece Zeliha
dc.date.accessioned2016-01-08T18:11:40Z
dc.date.available2016-01-08T18:11:40Z
dc.date.issued2009
dc.departmentDepartment of Industrial Engineeringen_US
dc.descriptionAnkara : The Department of Industrial Engineering and the Institute of Engineering and Sicence of Bilkent University, 2009.en_US
dc.descriptionThesis (Master's) -- Bilkent University, 2009.en_US
dc.descriptionIncludes bibliographical references leaves 58-59.en_US
dc.description.abstractOrder time and order quantity of seasonal products significantly affect profits gained at the end of the period due to high demand uncertainty. Delaying order time enables a company to gain more information on demand, while decreasing the possibility of realizing the best order quantity due to capacity constraints. This thesis analyzes the problem of determining the best order time for a seasonal product manufacturer in an environment, where there exists a single opportunity for ordering and capacity is a decreasing function of the order time. Main feature of the study is utilizing demand information collected until the order time for resolving some portion of the demand uncertainty. A Bayesian update procedure is utilized to capture the essence of the gathered demand information. Three models are proposed for determining the order time, each having a different level of flexibility with respect to possible order times considered. Analytical results for structural properties, as well as extensive numerical results are obtained. A computational study is carried out in order to compare the performance of the models under different settings and to identify the conditions under which the demand learning is most beneficial.en_US
dc.description.degreeM.S.en_US
dc.description.statementofresponsibilityDemirci, Ece Zelihaen_US
dc.format.extentxiii, 64 leavesen_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11693/14972
dc.language.isoEnglishen_US
dc.publisherBilkent Universityen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen_US
dc.subjectseasonal products inventory problemen_US
dc.subjectBayesian information updatingen_US
dc.subjectorder timeen_US
dc.subject.lccTS160 .D45 2009en_US
dc.subject.lcshInventory control--Econometric models.en_US
dc.subject.lcshDemand (Economic theory)en_US
dc.subject.lcshProduction management.en_US
dc.subject.lcshProduction planning.en_US
dc.titleOrder timing for seasonal products with demand learning and capacity constraintsen_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
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Dept. of Industrial Engineering - Master's degree