Contrast effects in judgmental forecasting when assessing the implications of worst and best case scenarios

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buir.contributor.authorGöğüş, Celile Itır
dc.citation.epage549en_US
dc.citation.issueNumber5en_US
dc.citation.spage536en_US
dc.citation.volumeNumber32en_US
dc.contributor.authorGoodwin, P.en_US
dc.contributor.authorGönül, S.en_US
dc.contributor.authorÖnkal, D.en_US
dc.contributor.authorKocabıyıkoğlu, A.en_US
dc.contributor.authorGöğüş, Celile Itıren_US
dc.date.accessioned2020-02-11T11:54:26Z
dc.date.available2020-02-11T11:54:26Z
dc.date.issued2019
dc.departmentDepartment of Managementen_US
dc.description.abstractTwo experiments investigated whether individuals' forecasts of the demand for products and a stock market index assuming a best or worst case scenario depend on whether they have seen a single scenario in isolation or whether they have also seen a second scenario presenting an opposing view of the future. Normatively, scenarios should be regarded as belonging to different plausible future worlds so that the judged implications of one scenario should not be affected when other scenarios are available. However, the results provided evidence of contrast effects in that the presentation of a second “opposite” scenario led to more extreme forecasts consistent with the polarity of the original scenario. In addition, people were more confident about their forecasts based on a given scenario when two opposing scenarios were available. We examine the implications of our findings for the elicitation of point forecasts and judgmental prediction intervals and the biases that are often associated with them.en_US
dc.embargo.release2021-12-01
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/bdm.2130en_US
dc.identifier.issn0894-3257
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11693/53277
dc.language.isoEnglishen_US
dc.publisherJohn Wiley & Sons, Ltd.en_US
dc.relation.isversionofhttps://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.2130en_US
dc.source.titleJournal of Behavioral Decision Makingen_US
dc.subjectBest and worst case scenariosen_US
dc.subjectContext effectsen_US
dc.subjectContrast effectsen_US
dc.subjectDemand forecastingen_US
dc.subjectPrediction intervalsen_US
dc.subjectStock market forecastingen_US
dc.titleContrast effects in judgmental forecasting when assessing the implications of worst and best case scenariosen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
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