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dc.contributor.authorÖnkal D.en_US
dc.contributor.authorYates, J. F.en_US
dc.contributor.authorSimga‐Mugan, C.en_US
dc.contributor.authorÖztin, Ş.en_US
dc.date.accessioned2016-02-08T10:29:47Z
dc.date.available2016-02-08T10:29:47Z
dc.date.issued2003en_US
dc.identifier.issn0749-5978
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11693/24464
dc.description.abstractHighly knowledgeable people often fail to achieve highly accurate judgments, a phenomenon sometimes called the "process-performance paradox." The present research tested for this paradox in foreign exchange (FX) rate forecasting. Forty professional and 57 sophisticated amateur forecasters made one-day and one-week-ahead FX predictions in deterministic and probabilistic formats. Among the conclusions indicated by the results are: (a) professional accuracy usually surpasses amateur accuracy, although many amateurs outperform many professionals; (b) professionals appear to achieve high proficiency via heavy reliance on predictive information (unlike what has been observed before, e.g., for stock prices); (c) forecast format strongly affects judgment accuracy and processes; and (d) apparent overconfidence can transform itself into underconfidence depending on when and how forecasters must articulate their confidence.en_US
dc.language.isoEnglishen_US
dc.source.titleOrganizational Behavior and Human Decision Processesen_US
dc.relation.isversionofhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0749-5978(03)00058-Xen_US
dc.titleProfessional vs. amateur judgment accuracy: the case of foreign exchange ratesen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.departmentDepartment of Managementen_US
dc.citation.spage169en_US
dc.citation.epage185en_US
dc.citation.volumeNumber91en_US
dc.citation.issueNumber2en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/S0749-5978(03)00058-Xen_US
dc.publisherAcademic Pressen_US
dc.identifier.eissn1095-9920


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