Professional vs. amateur judgment accuracy: the case of foreign exchange rates
| dc.citation.epage | 185 | en_US |
| dc.citation.issueNumber | 2 | en_US |
| dc.citation.spage | 169 | en_US |
| dc.citation.volumeNumber | 91 | en_US |
| dc.contributor.author | Önkal D. | en_US |
| dc.contributor.author | Yates, J. F. | en_US |
| dc.contributor.author | Simga‐Mugan, C. | en_US |
| dc.contributor.author | Öztin, Ş. | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2016-02-08T10:29:47Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2016-02-08T10:29:47Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2003 | en_US |
| dc.department | Department of Management | en_US |
| dc.description.abstract | Highly knowledgeable people often fail to achieve highly accurate judgments, a phenomenon sometimes called the "process-performance paradox." The present research tested for this paradox in foreign exchange (FX) rate forecasting. Forty professional and 57 sophisticated amateur forecasters made one-day and one-week-ahead FX predictions in deterministic and probabilistic formats. Among the conclusions indicated by the results are: (a) professional accuracy usually surpasses amateur accuracy, although many amateurs outperform many professionals; (b) professionals appear to achieve high proficiency via heavy reliance on predictive information (unlike what has been observed before, e.g., for stock prices); (c) forecast format strongly affects judgment accuracy and processes; and (d) apparent overconfidence can transform itself into underconfidence depending on when and how forecasters must articulate their confidence. | en_US |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.1016/S0749-5978(03)00058-X | en_US |
| dc.identifier.eissn | 1095-9920 | |
| dc.identifier.issn | 0749-5978 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/11693/24464 | |
| dc.language.iso | English | en_US |
| dc.publisher | Academic Press | en_US |
| dc.relation.isversionof | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0749-5978(03)00058-X | en_US |
| dc.source.title | Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes | en_US |
| dc.title | Professional vs. amateur judgment accuracy: the case of foreign exchange rates | en_US |
| dc.type | Article | en_US |
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